Election Prediction Project

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:17

Constituency Profile


Bélanger, Line

Dautovic, Dajana

Girard, Stéphane

Martel, Richard

Tremblay, Valérie

Voyer, Jimmy

Youde, Lynda


Richard Martel

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2545.71 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Denis Lemieux 1361931.10%
Dany Morin ** 1301929.70%
Élise Gauthier 899020.50%
Caroline Ste-Marie 727016.60%
Dany St-Gelais 9072.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.67%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Bloc didn't perform well here during the by-election even by pre surge standards. I think Martel will keep the seat Conservative.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
With a resurgence BQ, nothing in the Saguenay region is going to be safe for any federalist party. Remember Quebecers like to vote ‘Tout Ensemble’ and its starting to look like a BQ year.
02/10/19 R.O.
Was a surprise cpc by election pick up when Richard Martell first elected in 2018, he should be able to hold the riding but Bloc Quebecois will likely do better.
07/09/19 A.S.
Some byelection victors turn out to be one-election wonders; others presage more of a permanency--I suspect this is in the latter category. Or at least, Martel would have to enact an Andre Harvey party-switch in order for this to leave Conservative hands.
16/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Despite its intermittent history as a Conservative riding since the 80's, and a Creditiste riding decades earlier, it's not exactly a ‘safe’ seat for the Tories, although it should remain winnable as long as Martel sticks around.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Martel's personal popularity was enough for the Conservatives to win this seat largely when they were barely straddling 30% nationwide, he should be able to hold again.
08/03/19 Sam
A standout good result for the Conservatives in the previous by-election, and judging by the scale of it they can probably hold this as Richard Martel has a huge personal vote; he won many Bloc voters last time. He may not win a plurality again but the Conservatives have the edge and momentum here.

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