Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:11

Constituency Profile


Benoît, David

Bibeau, Marie-Claude

Mathieu Chauvette, Naomie

Mc Neil, Jessy

Reed, Paul

Rousseau, Jean

Therrien, Jonathan


Marie-Claude Bibeau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4560.51 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marie-Claude Bibeau 2058236.90%
Jean Rousseau ** 1530027.40%
France Bonsant 1155120.70%
Gustavo Labrador 697812.50%
Korie Marshall 10851.90%
Kévin Côté 3150.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 50.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals should hold here. Bibeau is a minister so that helps. The Bloc have won here before but it's never been overly a strong hold for them.
24/09/19 J.F. Breton
Bibeau (Liberals) in very good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberals (44%)
- Conservatives (19%)
- Bloc (14%)
- NDP (9%)
- Greens (7%)
- PPC (3%)
Source: https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/politique/la-liberale-bibeau-en-avance-dans-compton-stanstead-video-d48d64c49bff644ce311124ec6fafbf8
27/08/19 A.S.
Actually, candidatewise for the Liberals, Bibeau was considered a bit of a star catch in 2015; and her CV explains why she's presently in cabinet. True, her victory share in '15 wasn't overwhelming; but then, she had an incumbent to overthrow--and one who's since switched parties. Which means, all the more broken-up an opposition...and a bit too much Eastern Townships eclecticism to readily offer itself as part of a Bloc rump (or Con rump, for that matter)
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Miles Lunn's original post on this page sums it up quite succinctly.
03/07/19 Marco Ricci
Yes, Bibeau probably has the edge here for the immediate future. She won in 2015 as an unknown and now has a higher-profile as a cabinet minister so that should give her an edge.
The NDP, BQ & Conservatives don't appear to have candidates here yet. It should be noted that former NDP MP Jean Rousseau is running for the Greens this year. (He is mistakenly listed as running for the BQ in the candidate column on Wikipedia, but he should be in the Green column).
28/02/19 Sam
This isn't really a riding that is heavily pro-Liberal like nearby Brome-Mississquoi, but the Liberals were in 11 points ahead of the now-declining NDP last time, and no other party was in contention. With the Liberals having good fortunes in Quebec it should stay comfortably Liberal.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Not a safe Liberal riding by any means, but too federalist for BQ in its weakened status, too rural for NDP, and too far west of Quebec City for the Tories, so Liberal win by default.

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