Election Prediction Project

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 08:49:51

Constituency Profile


Beaulieu, Lynn

Bernatchez, Guy

Cowboy, Jay

Drainville, Dennis

Hébert, Eric

Lebouthillier, Diane

Pigeon, Jean-Pierre


Diane Lebouthillier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16831.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Diane Lebouthillier 1534538.70%
Philip Toone ** 1288532.50%
Nicolas Roussy 828920.90%
Jean-Pierre Pigeon 23986.10%
Jim Morrison 4001.00%
Max Boudreau 3000.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (84.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (15.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
The first riding to report from Quebec should be interesting. Liberals have held it since 2015 and the MP is in cabinet. I think that fact helps her to hold on ever so slightly over a surging Bloc.
15/10/19 Stevo
The Bloc is approaching parity with the Liberals in Quebec. The Liberals are likely to be wiped out outside of Greater Montreal and Outaouais/Gatineau. They certainly will not hang on way out here in the Gaspésie. Bloc pickup.
14/10/19 Sam
I thought, like everyone else, this would go Liberal. There's still plenty of reason why it could: the presence of a cabinet minister with a local presence; the relative weakness of nationalist parties in 2018 provincially (despite the PQ wins across the board;) the extent to which the Trudeau government (and Liberal party itself) has invested in the region. But all of those points are easily refutable. The Bloc and PQ still have a presence here, and with the surge they are no longer quite so far behind as they were. The surge is hard to pinpoint, but it's enough for a projection change, I think.
09/10/19 R.O.
With the bloc polling better in Quebec , one of a number of ridings I’d wonder about. Riding historically has been a bloc/ liberal swing riding with ndp winning in 2011. If the bloc really are gaining ground in Quebec is the type of riding one would expect them to do better in.
07/09/19 A.S.
Even as a results-foreshadower, 2015 was surprisingly gentle on the NDP in GLIdlM--Philip Toone was almost REB's match as folk-hero, as one of the more left-field Orange Crush victors stricken with an inhospitable riding redraw, who yet wound up holding his own with a higher share in defeat. Now, speaking of things at that end of the spectrum, former Rae-landslide Ontario NDP MPP Dennis Drainville is running here as a Green. And, anyway, we now have a Liberal incumbent with a Cabinet position. And as far as continued provincial PQ representation goes: at this point, that's more like the Quebec version of ‘Celtic Fringe’ Liberal dynamics in Britain. So if it defaults to *federal* Liberal, maybe it's poetic justice...
12/04/19 Sam
This is becoming a Liberal area of Quebec, at least federally, and even provincially the PLQ nearly won Gaspe, just a hundred or so votes behind. Now, with a declining NDP, it would take a lot for the Bloc to regain this; they're too far behind.. The Conservatives aren't a factor here either, this riding has one of their lowest membership figures anywhere.
03/03/19 Marco Ricci
This is the first Quebec riding to report results on election night. In 2011 the results from here foreshadowed the NDP win in Quebec, and in 2015 the results foreshadowed the Liberal win. Diane Lebouthillier was not well-known in 2015, but she now has a higher profile as the Minister of National Revenue and is the favourite to win here again.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster