Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:46:18

Constituency Profile


Chaurette, Eric

Dostaler, Guy

Goneau, Sylvie

Lam, Mario-Roberto

MacKinnon, Steven

Nadeau, Geneviève

Soublière, Pierre


Steven MacKinnon

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



118.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Steven MacKinnon 3107653.80%
Françoise Boivin ** 1535226.60%
Philippe Boily 54559.40%
Luc Angers 47338.20%
Guy Dostaler 9421.60%
Guy J. Bellavance 1480.30%
Pierre Soublière 940.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals will hold on here. It has been BQ in the past but never by big margins so the rise of the BQ over the past week or 2 shouldn't play a factor here.
15/09/19 Marco Ricci
This was one of the surprises on 2015 Election night. Although this had been a Liberal riding prior to the Sponsorship Scandal, they weren't expected to win it back by a 2-1 margin. Boivin had won here in 2011 by the largest margin of any NDP MP in Quebec, so MacKinnon's large victory was a surprise. Boivin has retired from politics and is now a t.v. commentator.
Trivia note: Geneviève Nadeau, the new BQ candidate, is the daughter of former BQ MP Richard Nadeau.
03/09/19 A.S.
The Françoise Boivin bubble sure deflated big last time--proof that NDP folk hero infrastructure can be built of balsa wood, and as such perhaps a foretelling of what's in store (and worse?) for Ruth-Ellen Brosseau. (Though as a single-term defeated Liberal prior to being a single-term defeated Dipper, something about Boivin always seemed blown out of proportion.) Now a likely safe romp to reelection for MacKinnon, provincial CAQ representation notwithstanding (though this is as incongruously "cosmopolitan" as CAQ turf gets, in a low-hanging-fruit-for-future-Liberal-takeback sense)
27/03/19 Sam
In recent elections Gatineau has followed provincial trends rather strongly, most noticeably by the scale of the 2011 NDP win over the incumbent Bloc MP and the 2018 CAQ win, it should go Liberal again, with their vote share holding up.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This did go NDP in 2011 and surprisingly went CAQ provincially, but as a solidly federalist area and slightly left of centre and the fact the Liberals have generally maintained good relations with the civil service unlike the past Tory government means easy Liberal hold.

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