Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:46:41

Constituency Profile


Deschênes, Alexandre

Duggan, Mike

Fergus, Greg

Grenier, Sébastien

Poirier Defoy, Josée

Riopel, Joanie

Tanguay, Rowen

Thibodeau, Nicolas


Greg Fergus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



62.11 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Greg Fergus 2847851.40%
Nycole Turmel ** 1747231.50%
Étienne Boulrice 42787.70%
Maude Chouinard-Boucher 36256.50%
Roger Fleury 10351.90%
Sean J. Mulligan 2910.50%
Luc Desjardins 1600.30%
Gabriel Girard-Bernier 1010.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Jean-Nicholas MartineauJohnny 5
This will stay Liberal , 2011 was a big wow for the ndp, but cant beat the liberal tradition here in 2015. However the riding is changing, a well known conservative candidate here in Mike duggan well known former Gatineau city councillor, could at least make them competitive. and even pull a strong second ^place, bleeding ndp vote could mean a strong third place for the bloc!
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This riding dates back more than 100 years and only once has a non Liberal been elected here. I think that continues on here in 2019.
02/10/19 R.O.
This riding will likely stay liberal , with the 2011 ndp victory going down in history as the 1 time it didn’t. more interesting question might be who comes in second here ? without a high profile candidate not sure the ndp can stay 2nd here and might see conservatives or bloc instead.
31/08/19 A.S.
In pre-Mulcair terms, this would have been the most ‘naturally’ low-hanging Quebec fruit for the NDP outside Montreal, even if they never really came pre-Orange Crush close. And y'know, much like vs Justin in Papineau, they *could* fake their way into 2nd place again, if only because the Bloc doesn't seem as ‘urban-appeal’ as it once was. In fact, I wouldn't rule out double-digit shares for either CPC or NDP...though if those two and the Bloc all do so, the likelihood of either reaching 20% is minimal.
02/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I have nothing to add and It would be impossible to improve upon the correct analyses proffered below.
30/05/19 seasaw
Greg Fergus should be able to get well over 50% in this riding, the CPC is non existant, the Bloc is weak and the love affair with the NDP is over. Expect the CPC, PPC and NDP to be in single digit percentage and the Bloc to get 20% max.
12/04/19 Sam
This is a long time Liberal riding and only went orange in the 2011 collapse. It will go Liberal again in these conditions, the Ottawa area is trending Liberal particularly on the Quebec side.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Large civil service and fairly federalist riding so only the NDP could realistically challenge them here and with how weak they are in Quebec, this should stay Liberal.

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