Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:20

Constituency Profile


Bourdages, Lyne

Gagnon, Philippe

Garneau, Vincent

Simard, Mario

Théodore, Sylvie

Trudel, Karine


Karine Trudel

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39196.14 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karine Trudel 1403929.20%
Marc Pettersen 1370028.50%
Jean-François Caron 1120223.30%
Ursula Larouche 812416.90%
Carmen Budilean 6561.40%
Marielle Couture 3820.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 520.11%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (78.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (17.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 J.F. Breton
Sondage Mainstreet du 9 octobre (634 personnes). Depuis, le Bloc a raffermi son vote:
- Bloc (34%)
- NPD (25%)
- Conservateurs (20%)
- Libéraux (15%)
- Verts (2%)
- PPC (2%)
Source: Le Quotidien, 17 octobre 2019, p.6.
17/10/19 R.O.
The polls for this riding appear to have shifted in favour of the Bloc according to a new mainstreet poll as they have a lead over the ndp incumbent
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 17h17 hours ago
And lastly, we look at Jonquiere, where the @BlocQuebecois candidate @mario_simard holds a sizeable lead over incumbent @NDP candidate @trudel_karine #elxn43 #cdnpoli
15/10/19 Sam
Still a close one, but in what was a fairly close race anyway, the Bloc surge is likely going to hand it to them. Granted, their local effort here have been somewhat less extensive than the two main parties, but this is exactly the sort of riding where voters are willing to consider the Bloc regardless - it's a nationalist riding with both PQ and CAQ representation. If there is one Bloc gain in Northern Quebec, I feel this is it, and it's looking that way.
14/10/19 J.F. Breton
Le vote pour le Bloc ne semble pas vouloir faiblir et se cristalise. Sur la base du dernier sondage Mainstreet dans Jonquière, où la lutte était serrée, on peut présumer que le Bloc a pris l'avantage depuis. D'ailleurs, les sites agrégateurs de sondages, comme Qc125 et TooClosetoCall donnent maintenant Jonquière au Bloc.
23/09/19 J.F. Breton
Karine Trudel is really not in a good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Conservatives (25%)
- Liberals (22%)
- Bloc (17%)
- NDP (11%)
- Greens (5%)
- PPC (2%)
- Undecided (16%)
Source: Le Progrès week-end, September 21st, 2019, page 4.
07/09/19 A.S.
Such is the state of the NDP in Quebec that 21.5% for a 2015 ‘accident’ like Trudel seems unnaturally *high*. And if Jonquiere would seem like a natural next-conquest for the Cons, it's more as Chicoutimi-byelection carryover or ‘Michel Gauthier’ regionalism than anything to do with Jean-Pierre Blackburn's grand-coalition tenure.
02/08/20 Marco Ricci
It was reported in the Quebec media today that Conservative internal polls show the following 4-way race for this riding, with the Liberals currently in 1st:
LIB 28.7
CON 24
NDP 21.5
BQ 21
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
The Conservatives have been smart finding local heroes to run in rural/small town ridings where their names carry more. Philippe Gagnon is exactly that type of candidate and most projector websites already have this for the Tories under current polling without even factoring in the 5% or so name recognition can help with.
11/03/19 Sam
The only thing that is clear is that the NDP are in an awful position to hold this, it's likely to go Liberal but the Conservatives have shown their strength in Saguenay and could also take it.
05/03/19 Neal
I expect the Conservatives to retake Jonquiere which the held under Jean pierre Blackburn until the Orange Wave of 2011.
Given the trend to the Conservatives in the region, in large part due to the work of Alain Rayes and former BQ leader Michel Gauthier, I believe this seat will go to the Tories.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster