Election Prediction Project

La Pointe-de-l'Île
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:12

Constituency Profile


Beaulieu, Mario

Coutu, Robert

Fiori, Franco

Lafrenaye, Jacinthe

Manseau, Randy

Péclet, Ève

Plamondon, Jonathan

Royer, Geneviève


Mario Beaulieu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



41.56 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mario Beaulieu 1854533.60%
Marie-Chantale Simard 1577728.60%
Ève Péclet ** 1477726.80%
Guy Morissette 44088.00%
David J. Cox 11302.00%
Ben 97 Benoit 3580.60%
Jean-François Larose 1350.20%
Geneviève Royer 960.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2380.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (88.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (11.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Going to be another riding to watch on Monday. The area hasn't been Bloc since before Harper. I think that changes on Monday. BQ win.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Beaulieu is a former BQ leader, while his time as leader is past I think his time as MP will continue on.
02/09/19 A.S.
It could well be that this (along with Rosemont-LPP, if the NPD's lucky) will be the only non-Liberal node remaining on the Île de Montréal--and not coincidentally, it also contains the only real spread of CAQ representation on the Île de Montréal; relative to the rest, it's sort of the Franco-trashburban version of Ford Nation, which tells you where the present Bloc/CAQ crossover demo lies (and Beaulieu's radical-nationalist background fits the bill). The question now is whether the Bloc base is becoming too ‘514’ even for *here*, or how much of a NPD-CAQ-federal Lib crossover vote there is--so for all we know, we might even have a Liberal clean sweep...
12/06/19 Laurence Putnam
The Bloc rebound has been sizeable enough that an MP of Beaulieu's stature and name recognition should win easily enough, even with the Liberals likely to be hot on his heels.
06/04/19 Sam
I know it was supposed to be a three way race last time, but this time it's a two way race, and I agree with J.F. Breton that the Bloc should come out on top.
01/04/19 Mizisuga
NDP collapse means Bloc will likely retain most if not all their seats, and the seat of their former interim leader is no exception.
06/03/19 Dr. Bear
@J.F.Breton: Yes, transfer some of the NDP vote to Bloc, but some will transfer to the Liberals. The winner will be the candidate that can take more of the NDP vote. That will be far more evident closer to e-day. I agree with you that the BQ have the edge
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
With Singh victory yesterday, we can predict the final collapse of the NDP in Quebec. Transfer of some NDP votes to the Bloc. Mario Beaulieu is safe in this nationalist area of Montreal Island.

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