Election Prediction Project

La Prairie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:45

Constituency Profile


Chouinard, Normand

Hernandez, Victoria

Joannette, Barbara

Lapointe, Isabelle

Poissant, Jean-Claude

Therrien, Alain

Yablunovsky, Gregory


Jean-Claude Poissant

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



278.94 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean-Claude Poissant 2099336.50%
Christian Picard 1510726.20%
Pierre Chicoine 1317422.90%
Yves Perras 685911.90%
Joanne Tomas 12352.10%
Normand Chouinard 2040.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 910.18%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (51.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Brossard-La Prairie
   (48.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Going to be an interesting seat to watch as well. I think the Bloc candidate will make things interesting here given his being a MNA at 1 time but the incumbent Liberal should squeak out a win here.
18/10/19 J.F. Breton
Alain Therrien, ancien député du Parti Québécois, se présente ici. Avec la montée du Bloc dans les sondages, bonnes chances d'un gain. À l'?extérieur de Montréal, l'?influence du Bloc se fait le plus sentir : le parti est largement en avance en Montérégie (39%), dans Lanaudière/Laurentides (45%) et dans le Centre-du-Québec (36%).
11/10/19 R.O.
Not ready to make a solid prediction but a riding I’d wonder about the bloc in. they came a close second in 2015 and this year there candidate is Alain Therrien who was a former Parti Quebecois MNA who lost his seat when the CAQ won in 2018. Have to see how the final week plays out and if bloc numbers hold.
05/09/19 A.S.
La Prairie was the ‘Bloc’ half of the former Brossard-La Prairie; now it's been split off and joined into the rest of South Shore Blocburbia all the way to the Kahnawake frontier...and lo and behold, that Blocburbia (and '11 Dipperburbia, just short of 50%) went *Liberal* in '15, now with La Prairie and Candiac leading the way. And while not on a Brossard scale, it was still a surprisingly sturdy Liberal, with a 10 point+ margin over the Bloc--proof of how the Justin wave moderated a lot of Montreal's inner sprawl that once seemed terminally out of Liberal reach. That *could* still be open to BQ picking if the NDP collapses wholesale in that direction...but the trends are not in their favour unless the Bloc scores at least a third of all seats in QC.
08/03/19 Sam
Again, a Liberal win can be expected. Their main challengers are the Bloc who lost by 10 last time as the NDP continue to decline. Jean-Claude Poissant has been a great MP so the Liberals have what they need to win this again.

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