Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:30

Constituency Profile


Boudreault, Danny

Brunelle-Duceppe, Alexis

Fortin, Jean-Simon

Fradette, Jocelyn

Gagnon-Bond, Julie

Hébert, Richard


Richard Hébert

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



56970.86 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Denis Lebel ** 1839333.30%
Gisèle Dallaire 1573528.50%
Sabin Simard 1019318.40%
Sabin Gaudreault 1015218.40%
Laurence Requilé 8061.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (70.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (29.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 J.F. Breton
Très difficile à prédire ici. J'irai pour Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe du Bloc, le fils de Gilles Duceppe. Avec la remontée spectaculaire du Bloc dans les sondages, ce sera un gain serré du bloc dans Lac-St-Jean, tant par division du vote que par la présence d'un libéral sortant et de l'influence des quatre principaux partis dans la région.
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
The political home of former BQ leader Lucien Bouchard. The seat has been won by popular mayors in the area over the past while including the current MP. I think he'll hold on here in a close race with the CPC.
02/10/19 R.O.
This riding was a surprise liberal by election pick up in 2017. Richard Hebert goes into the election as the incumbent but not a longtime mp. Type of ridings where we might see the bloc Quebecois do better . Conservatives have had some good results here in the past which might explain why Scheer visited the riding to campaign with cpc candidate Jocelyn Fradette .
16/09/19 J.F. Breton
TCTC at this time: race between Conservatives and Liberals. Mainstreet Poll:
- Conservatives (37%)
- Liberals (34%)
- Bloc (9%)
- Greens (7%)
- PPC (3%)
- NDP (2%)
Source: https://www.msn.com/fr-ca/actualites/other/sondage-mainstreet-une-course-%C3%A0-deux-en-vue-dans-lac-saint-jean/ar-AAHmZft
07/09/19 A.S.
*None* of the Saguenay ridings are ‘traditionally’ Conservative--CPC successes in recent years have hinged more upon individual candidates (Denis Lebel, Jean-Pierre Blackburn, Richard Martel) than something ‘in the blood’. (In fact, they're not really baked-in-stone for *anyone*, except in generic copycat waves a la Mulroney/Bloc. Even Lebel counterintuitively came close to falling to NPD in *2015*, something he avoided in 2011.) Though the Michel Gauthier impetus *could* lead to a clean Con sweep this time--*could*. But it's definitely a measure of how the mood in the air shifted that within a space of a year in the Saguenay, we went from a Lib picking up a Con seat in a byelection, to a Con picking up a Lib seat in a byelection. And of course, the *provincial* Liberal leader is no longer a factor around these parts.
02/08/20 Sam
I think my initial projection was the right one for the time - but now with the blue uptick in Quebec, particularly in the Saguenay region, the many polls indicating a conservative win are corroborated. Hebert's personal vote is not as sizeable as Martel's, so I don't see that sort of race here. Fradette may be one of the lesser-profile CPC candidates in Quebec compared to Levesque, Corriveau, and of course Blaney and Deltell, but nevertheless if he plays it safe and the current situation doesn't shift wildly he should regain this.
05/03/19 Neal
A long time Conservative seat, it fell to the Liberals in a by election shortly after the departure of Denis Lebel after the 2015 Conservative defeat. With the help of former BQ leader and MP for the riding when it was known as Roberval, Michel Gauthier, and of course Quebec organizer Alain rayes, this will return to the fold.
27/02/19 Sam
This riding will be too close to call. By-election results don't translate into results at the actual Federal Election, but the recent one in this riding does give us an indication. The Liberal increase in the vote has been corroborated by polling, so it is possible they hold this again. The riding is however traditionally Conservative, and the Conservatives won the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election. The NDP and Bloc have more pressing concerns than to contest this, so although it is a Liberal vs. Conservative contest it may be a while before we see who actually has the upper hand.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster