Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:37

Constituency Profile


Chantrel, Gaël

Dufour, Claude

Evanko, Richard

Gaudreau, Marie-Hélène

Graham, David

Grégoire, Serge

Leclerc, Michel

Schneider, Ludovic


David Graham

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



17779.21 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Graham 2027732.10%
Johanne Régimbald 1879229.70%
Simon-Pierre Landry 1664426.30%
Sylvain Charron 62099.80%
Niloufar Hedjazi 12512.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1490.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Riding went Liberal last time based a lot on coat tails. Trudeau's still pretty popular but not enough to get David Graham re-elected. The BQ win here.
15/10/19 Physastr Master
There's no way the liberals will hold a 3 point win against what appears to be a full-scale cyan tsunami. 338 gives the BQ a *22* point lead here. To give you an idea of how solid that is, that gives better odds of Scheer being defeated in Regina-Q'Appelle than the Liberals winning here, according to the 338 model.
14/10/19 Sam
This was a tossup at best before any increase for the Bloc, let alone to one chasing the Liberals. If the Bloc stand to gain seats like Drummond and Therese de Blainville, as we're predicting currently, it's hard to see this seat, their best hope for a gain off the Liberals, and one that's quite suited to them demographically and from a partisan perspective.
10/10/19 J.F. Breton
Avec un Bloc Québécois qui est monté à 37% dans le plus récent sondage chez les francophones, terreau très fertile pour le Bloc dans les Laurentides, on peut prévoir un gain dans cette circonscription. C'est d'ailleurs la prévision des agrégateurs de sondages comme Qc125 et TooClosetoCall.
04/09/19 A.S.
Sort of the "Geek Of The House" (in computer-ese terms, that is), Graham's one of the likelier didn't-expect-to-win-this cases in the Liberal caucus--after all, this is mainly traditional Bloc *and* PQ country, and vacation-country resort-federalism, whether Mont-Tremblant or outer-edge "Gatineauism", tends to be *very* cubbyholed. (In fact, it the SE extremity of Saint-Sauveur that was most critical to his victory--that is, blame creeping Montreal exurbia.) Hey, much as with the NDP Orange Crush caucus, if he turns out to be but a one-term wonder, it was fun while it lasted...
27/05/19 Marco Ricci
According to polling sites such as 338Canada, the BQ is at about 19% support in Quebec right now, and projected to win about 13 seats. So at this point in time, the BQ is a long way from being able to win a majority of seats in Quebec. Laurentides-Labelle is currently listed as a Tossup with an equal chance of going either Liberal or BQ.
07/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
Latest poll shows BQ at 18% in voting intentions in Quebec. That's 8 points up from the moment YF Blanchet stepped in as new leader. That is very significant. The Laurentian area was a Bloc nest for more almost 20 years. That picture shifted around during the short Layton era as the NDP sweeped the North. In 2015, liberal's Graham beat Bloc's Regimbald by 1485. Trudeau did'nt help his party to get new votes in his last 4 years up here, he just managed to lose a bundle. Easy Bloc win here and in other Laurentian ridings.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc Québécois, with possible gains in October. But it's too soon to predict a winner. Let's see the next polls and local strategies. TCTC.
28/02/19 Sam
Probably one of the most vulnerable ridings in Quebec for the Liberals. It is in the greater Laurentides area which contains good prospects for the Bloc and it is also vulnerable on paper with David Graham winning fewer than a third of the vote in 2015. Were the Liberals not doing so well in Quebec as they are I would have severe doubts about them holding it, but I see a path to victory for them. Either way, it will be close, but the Liberals still have a route to victory in a riding they were not heavily expected to win in in 2015.

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