Election Prediction Project

Laval-Les Îles
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:30

Constituency Profile


Beauchamp, Marie-Louise

Beddad, Nacera

EL-Khoury, Fayçal

Madi, Sari

Onofre De Lima, Noémia

Pentefountas, Tom


Fayçal El-Khoury

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



46.36 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Fayçal El-Khoury 2585747.70%
François Pilon ** 1071019.80%
Roland Dick 981118.10%
Nancy Redhead 673112.40%
Faiza R'Guiba-Kalogerakis 9211.70%
Yvon Breton 1750.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4831.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Laval-Les Îles
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This riding returned back to its Liberal roots in 2015 following a brief NDP hold of this riding. I think they hold on here again.
31/08/19 A.S.
The Chomedey element ensures that except in Mulroney/Layton situations, this is Laval's ‘no matter what’ Liberal riding--though that strength was camouflaged in 2015 by the Libs not doing *that* much better here than in the other Laval ridings. (And some of that may have been due to modern-day Con bottom-feeding off the Chomedey Jewish vote--the CPC managed a surprising 18% and almost toppled the NDP for second. Though by feasting off the non-Anglo/Allo parts, the fourth-place Bloc curiously won more polls than either.)
13/04/19 Sam
This is a natural Liberal area, especially the Chomedey portion of the riding, and it shows. Francois Pilon really underperformed here last time despite his local popularity, so the Liberal vote will definitely hold up, with probably just over 50% this time.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Unlike other Laval ridings, this generally goes Liberal even in bad elections so Liberals hold this even if things turn for the worse for them.

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