Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:10

Constituency Profile


Brault, François-Noël

Daigle, Ghislain

Fontaine, Marc

Gourde, Jacques

Kerr, Patrick

Marchand, Christel


Jacques Gourde

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2066.29 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jacques Gourde ** 3135750.10%
Claude Boucher 1356221.70%
Hélène Bilodeau 924614.80%
Steve Gagné 716311.40%
Tina Biello 11241.80%
François Belanger 1360.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A CPC riding since 2006, I think Gourde will hold on here and win a 5th term in office.
30/09/19 R.O.
Jacques Gorde has been mp for a while , only real challenge was in 2011 when the ndp surged in Quebec. He should be able to hold this rural Quebec riding.
07/09/19 A.S.
Here, too, absolute majority in '15 likely = Con re-election in '19, even if Gourde's not as high-profile as Blaney and even if he came closer to being an Orange Crush victim in '11. For perspective's sake, outside the Ile de Montreal (+ Brossard) and the Outaouais, no other party got an absolute majority in any riding in QC. None other than Cons (including Bernier) in proximity to the Capitale-Nationale.
24/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Through succeeding decades, this has been grassroots Diefenbaker, Union Nationale, Creditiste, Mulroney Coaltion, ADQ & Harper soft nationalist small ‘c’ conservative territory. Scheer can win over easily with the aide of a popular local incumbent.
This is one of those rare Quebec ridings that will pretty much vote for any right wing option on the ballot that's even halfway viable. Gourde will win easily.
06/04/19 Legolas
As with the other suburban Quebec City seats, the Conservatives won them by decent margins in 2015 and there is no way they are losing them while polling even better for this election.
06/04/19 Sam
This area of Quebec is now reliably Conservative, and it should stay that way. No other party can really appeal to the demographics here.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Jacques Gourde is really not in danger. Easy win for the Conservatives in Chaudière-Appalaches.

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