Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:21

Constituency Profile


Clune, Patrick

Comeau, Ellen

Ferland, Éric

Filion, Pierre-Luc

Hébert, Réjean

Nantel, Pierre

Trudel, Denis


Pierre Nantel

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



55.25 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Nantel ** 1817131.20%
Michael O'Grady 1746830.00%
Denis Trudel 1587327.30%
John Sedlak 50878.70%
Casandra Poitras 14472.50%
Affine Lwalalika 1530.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 870.17%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (77.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (22.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/10/19 Nolan
The Bloc is back in Quebec they will take this riding with a fairly strong margin and the main parties falling in Quebec does have a part to do with this.
Bloc Quebecois- 42
Liberal- 26
Green- 13
NDP- 11
Con- 7
PPC- 1
15/10/19 Mark
I think this one will be even closer than the polls are showing, but the Bloc will most likely pull it out. They have good word of mouth and momentum right now.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
Les Quebecois are famous for political tsunamis, and l'm getting a bad feeling that the small Bloc tide we are seeing is about to morph into a BQ wave in francophone Quebec. English Canada (and Montreal) might have nobody appealing to vote for in this election about nothing, but in Quebec there actually is another option. Blanchet acquitted himself well in the debates, is the only leader unequivocally on the right side of the popular Bill 21 in Quebec, and given the unappealing options, what seemed like a party dead and buried might just pick up more seats in Quebec than any other party...or at least give the Liberals a run for their money.
11/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
EP can turn predictions back to TCTC and even flip choices. That it happens to be one party on any given day doesn't mean that it won't change the next day.
After having watched the French language debate I think we can see that the BQ vote will rise and the CPC will crash.
I stand by my original point. The current stump is going to be ripped up.
08/10/19 Daniel Beaudin
I can't believe EP called this one already! It does'nt make any sense. A 7 point spread (within the margin of error) with 2 weeks to go and Trudeau clearly downhill with the francophones in Quebec is a very hazardous call. There is clearly a trend unfolding right now with the liberals in Quebec which is different from the one in the ROC. Lighting up a fire with bill 21 is not a good idea JT. You would think that the liberals would have learned something from 2011. Not.
06/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet released a poll for Longueuil St-Hubert today. 7-point Liberal lead, with BQ 2nd & Greens 3rd:
BQ: 28%
GREEN: 17%
NDP: 5%
06/10/19 Manny Toba
Liberals up 7 over the Bloc.
M. Hébert récolterait 35 % des voix si l’élection avait lieu aujourd’hui selon un sondage réalisé par la firme Mainstreet Research le 29 septembre pour le compte du Groupe Capitales Médias.
M. Hébert a été député de la circonscription de Saint-François entre 2012 et 2014. Il a occupé le poste de ministre de la Santé et des Services sociaux sous le gouvernement de Pauline Marois. Son saut chez les libéraux au fédéral a fait beaucoup jaser. Il devance Denis Trudel qui représente le Bloc québécois. Ce dernier va chercher tout de même 28 % des intentions de vote.
En troisième position on retrouve Pierre Nantel du Parti vert avec 17 %. Les conservateurs suivent à seulement 9 %. Patrick Clune est le candidat. Eric Ferland du NPD (5 %) et Ellen Comeau du Parti populaire (3 %) ferment la marche. Les candidats indépendants vont chercher près de 4 % des intentions de vote.
25/09/19 The Jackal
The tit for tat in ex party members as candidates between the NDP and the Green Party makes this an interesting race. However at the end of the day this with will go Liberal
17/09/19 Marco Ricci
The NDP has chosen former Quebec Green Party leader Eric Ferland to take on Pierre Nantel:
16/09/19 Daniel Beaudin
NDP announced that environmentalist Eric Ferland (ex Quebec Green party chief)is the choosen candidate to replace Nantel. That is going to set up a great race, perhaps one of the closest in Quebec. Right now Liberal Hebert is getting the heat from the separatists and is accused of being a traitor for changing sides, that could create favorable movement for Bloc candidate Denis Trudel. Ferland will split the green vote with Nantel who ‘crossed the lawn’ and went to the Greens. Not to mention the return of PC's Patrick Clune who might be an answer for the betrayed Liberals that don't see a liberal separatist in Longueuil.Your guess is as good as mine.
This one is going to be too close to call till the very end. This riding is split between nationalist and federalist vote. How many votes will Nantel bring with him to the Greens? How many NDP votes will the BQ Trudel need to beat Hebert? Will fourth time PC runner Clune chew enough liberal votes to pave the way for a Bloc win? We will just have to wait and see.
08/09/19 Marco Ricci
CBC reports that former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert was confirmed today as the Liberal candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
05/09/19 A.S.
Yes, it's definitely possible that Nantel might fare better as a Green than as a Dipper; but not in the ‘winnability’ sense--at best, he's the Bruce Hyer of this cycle. And a former PQ minister turned Liberal is the best imaginable metaphor for where this particular geography's gone in the Justin era, so in the end who cares about the lesser matter of NPD gone Green. (Still a ‘work in progress’, though.)
21/08/20 QuebecCityOliver
Clearly a stump about to be ripped up. Réjean Hébert has got to be a solid favourite to win here.
20/08/20 J.F. Breton
Pierre Nantel is running for Greens now. I'm really not sure it will change something for him. But it will be a very interesting race. Réjean Hebert, former health minister in PQ Cabinet will probably run for the Liberals. And Denis Trudel, a well known actor, will run for the Bloc. TCTC at this time.
19/08/20 Steve Smith
It's just been announced that Pierre Nantel will be running here for the Greens. I can't see that being the ticket to his re-election when he was apparently so far behind as a New Democrat and when the Greens have no significant established support here (put another way: Nantel without the Greens was going to lose handily, and the Greens without Nantel were going to lose handily, so why would the combination of the two be a contender?), but it does change the complexion of the race somewhat.
18/08/20 Marco Ricci
The NDP has removed MP Pierre Nantel as the candidate for this riding after it was revealed he was in discussions with Elizabeth May of the Green Party:
02/08/20 Marco Ricci
It was reported by the Quebec media today that a Conservative internal poll shows the Liberals with a good lead here, BQ 2nd, and NDP way down in single digits:
LIB 40.4
BQ 28.6
NDP 6.4
10/07/19 Daniel Beaudin
This is one that we are not finished taking about since Rejean Hébert, the ex PQ Health Minister landed in the liberal nomination contest today. He is facing a 10-year long local city councillor, Eric Beaulieu. Hebert says Trudeau invited him in this race, I’m not so sure. Our PM must have been smoking a lot of the product he legalized to bring on board a separatist minister with the liberals. The outcome of this election is going to be good till the last drop. Jagmeet Singh’s unpopularity in Quebec will make the incumbent NDP a distant third. The nationalist and separatists roots of the voters that gave an uncontested landslide win to the CAQ on the south Shore of Montreal in the last provincial election should play a big difference on the result and help the Bloc. But this one is really to close to call for now.
08/07/19 Marco Ricci
Radio Canada journalist Louis Blouin reports that former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will run in Longueuil–Saint-Hubert for the Liberals:
03/03/19 Sam
This riding is going to be competitive, with both the Bloc and the Liberals in a good position to take the seat. Pierre Nantel himself acknowledged he is in trouble and that Jagmeet Singh could hurt his chances here, something that may shift votes to the Bloc. The Bloc have to still overtake the second-placed Liberals which may be a challenge for them, and so neither party can really be written off here. The NDP incumbent is definitely in a bad position.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster