Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:52

Constituency Profile


Amram Ducharme, Colette

Côté, Guillaume

Cusson, Jean-Christophe

Deltell, Gérard

Desgagnés, Jeanne-Paule

Riedo, Sandra Mara


Gérard Deltell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



138.17 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gérard Deltell 3263750.50%
Youri Rousseau 1385221.40%
G. Daniel Caron 1029615.90%
Ronald Sirard 668810.30%
Michel Savard 12101.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1750.31%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the CPC could lose every other riding in Quebec but they'll keep this 1. Deltell's someone I can see going for their leadership for 2023 or sooner if we get a minority govt.
07/09/19 A.S.
Nobody would have predicted circa Y2K that this seat would become CPC bedrock; in fact, it had been a soft Bloc seat that was a Lib pickup during Jean Chretien's 2000 ‘mini-comeback’. But now it is--and it helps that Deltell's likely the most urbane of the party's Quebec caucus.
02/06/19 Sam
Hard to see anything other than a win for the CPC here. The Quebec City region is their heartland, and the 50% margin last time is indicative of their strength here.
06/04/19 Legolas
Deltell is locally popular and has always been prominent in the riding. The CPC won this seat with 50%+ in 2015 so I do not see them losing this with the way they are polling now.
20/03/19 Stevo
This was the CPC's best Quebec seat in 2004 under candidate Josée Verner (in defeat) and second best in 2006 and 2008 (in victory). It just barely slipped out of their hands in 2011 due to the Layton NDP surge but returned to normal in 2015. With Bernier splitting the vote in Beauce, this will likely be the CPC's best Quebec seat this year.
25/02/19 Dr. Bear
A conservative leaning riding with a very strong candidate in Deltell. This will easily stay in the CPC column.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Easy gain for PCC in Quebec City area. Gerard Deltell will easily have the support of the CAQ and Quebec 21 members. Same DNA.
24/02/19 Teddy Boragina
This is one of the most Conservative and conservative ridings in the province; and with Deltell as the MP, I don't see that changing any time soon. This riding in particular has been very brand-friendly towards the Conservative Party, with the party only losing it two times; 2004 when they did not win any Quebec seats, and 2011 when the NDP swept the province.

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