Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:34:42

Constituency Profile


Corriveau, François

Côté, Gabriel

Gélineau, Jacques

Gill, Marilène

McCool, Colleen

Savard, Dave


Marilène Gill

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



247655.33 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marilène Gill 1733841.30%
Mario Tremblay 1234329.40%
Jonathan Genest-Jourdain ** 735917.50%
Yvon Boudreau 431710.30%
Nathan Grills 6731.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (87.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
At 1 time the political home for Brian Mulroney the seat has been a Bloc strong hold since the 90's sans the orange crush election of 2011. I think in 2019 amid the BQ surge they hold on here.
15/10/19 Sam
Not always in agreement with the interesting takes A.S. provides but he's spot on here. Easy Bloc win given their current good conditions
07/09/19 A.S.
There's something a bit ‘off’ about the likelihood of the best Bloc riding in 2015 being taken out by the Cons this time, particularly given how it all stuck to the PQ provincially--that is, Corriveau's brief byelected stint was the last time *anyone* on the CPC/ADQ/CAQ axis was elected to any parliament around here. And while Corriveau *could* benefit from CPC spillover energy from the Capitale-Nationale and the Saguenay, there's also something of a resource-town-and-reserves ‘removedness’ that's more akin to Northern relative to Southern Ontario, or Churchill relative to the rest of Manitoba--it's all just a Tadoussac ferry ride too far away. Plus, that which *isn't* Bloc-congenial (the reserves, the Golfe-du-Saint-Laurent eastern extremities) tends more Lib than Con. Of course, if you want proof that a Conservative victory isn't un-doable in Manicouagan, just think back to Brian Mulroney in the 1980s...
29/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Corriveau as a candidate is a coup for the Tories and will no doubt give them a stronger result here than they would have otherwise expected. There's a chance that soft nationalist votes persuaded away from the Bloc to vote for Corriveau could let the Libs come up the middle, but I think for now the smart money is still on the Bloc.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
This is probably a safe bet for the BQ with the Conservatives finishing a comfortable second. Corriveau did well personally the provincial seat overlapping this one which he held as an ADQ MNA for a year, which shows he has some personal base. But it won't be enough to pick it up.
27/02/19 Sam
This is the riding I would be most confident in predicting a Bloc win. It went PQ at provincial level last year, and was the Bloc's best riding . Although this has been held by the NDP, the main challengers appear to be the Liberals. They have been gaining in the North but not by a significant enough margin to oust Marilene Gill, who will have a lot of party resources as the Bloc tries to win back Official Party Status.

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