Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:31

Constituency Profile


Berthold, Luc

Boisvert, Mathieu

Charette, Nicole

Corbeil, Priscilla

Grégoire, Isabelle

Lauzier, Marie Claude

Paradis, Jean

Roy, Damien


Luc Berthold

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5935.56 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Luc Berthold 1674935.40%
David Berthiaume 1330828.10%
Jean-François Delisle 1038622.00%
Virginie Provost 583812.30%
Justin Gervais 10062.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2500.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (97.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Riding has been CPC since 2006. The Liberals made it close in 2015, I think they get the job done in 2019 here.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
If CPC numbers continue to slide in Quebec, this seat will certainly be in play. I think the CPC have hit bottom and are leveling off but I'm starting to pay attention to this seat.
07/09/19 A.S.
It really was more of a Christian Paradis riding than a Conservative riding, so Berthold did well to hold; and now being girded by Conservative or ‘conservative’ ridings, it feels like there's safety in numbers. But re the kinds of things bringing down the share in '15, let's consider that the riding includes recovery-mode Lac-Megantic, where the E-day vote went like this: Lib 35.15%, NDP 29.85%, CPC 17.81%, BQ 14.03%, GP 3.16%. (Every party but the Cons above riding par.)
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Correct analyses offered below; another poor 2015 result for Les Bleus but don't forget everyone else still had an even worse result! Given current polling, incumbency and regional trends, even if you think the Liberals have a chance (and they do) you have to realize that the Conservatives are opening the campaign with the advantage. In a seat they already hold, all they have to do is not screw up to keep this in their column.
21/06/19 seasaw
The last time the CPC got 35% here and I believe they'll get more this time. The NDP got 22%,they won't get anywhere near that this time, while some of their support will go to the Liberals, most will go to BQ and Greens, that should make for a CPC win.
06/04/19 Legolas
This is a Quebec Conservative seat the CPC held in 2011 with the NDP wave as well as in 2015 (although with a smaller margin due to a new candidate and losing Paradis' incumbency advantage). Nonetheless with the CPC polling nearly 10% higher than in 2015 they should hold it.
04/04/19 Sam
Whilst I don't think Luc Berthold will win massively, I don't see any other party in contention for a victory here, even though Berthold won a low share of the vote last time. The Conservatives are in the best position in a rural riding like this, where the Liberals aren't showing the gains; there is little NDP vote to siphon from. Despite the decline in vote for the Conservatives last time, with recent trends, it seems as if it can't get much worse. Berthold should be quite comfortable.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Luc Berthold is really not in danger. Easy win for the Conservatives in Chaudière-Appalaches.

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