Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:11

Constituency Profile


Biacchi, Pietro

Desrochers, François

Marcil, Simon

Montpetit, Christian

Saint-Germain, Anne-Marie

Tremblay, Julie

Trudel, Karl


Simon Marcil

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



839.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Simon Marcil 1871031.50%
Mylène Freeman ** 1787330.10%
Karl Trudel 1551426.10%
Gordon Ferguson 602010.10%
Jocelyn Gifford 13012.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2120.45%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (58.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (15.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (14.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat went BQ in 2015, in 2019 with the polls showing their rise, I think Simon Marcil holds on here.
10/10/19 Mizisuga
I don't see why the Bloc would lose this, at this point in the election when they are polling so high. BQ is not losing any ridings this October.
09/10/19 J.F. Breton
Je réitère, six mois plus tard, une victoire de Simon Marcil dans Mirabel. Le Bloc Québécois est en bonne position, particulièrement chez les francophones. Son chef a de bonnes performances lors des débats et sur le terrain. Le député sortant a un avantage. Terreau fertile pour le Bloc dans les Laurentides. Réélection de Marcil.
09/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Late-campaign BQ surge plants this firmly in the Bloc column.
25/08/20 A.S.
The dominant rapid-growth "514" outerburban-ness here is of the sort that if it went Bloc in 2015, it's likely to stay there--keeping in mind that in the *provincial* riding of Mirabel, the PLQ's only been above third place once this century. It's only the vestigial Mylene Freeman NDP factor that pressed things down last time.
02/03/19 Sam
I made a mistake in my previous prediction - I had thought the Liberals were only a point behind, when in fact the NDP were. With this information I would bring it in line with my other projections and say that the Bloc have a slight edge here.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
NDP collapse in Quebec. New leader at the Bloc and rising in the polls. Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc. Victory of Simon Marcil without hesitation.
27/02/19 Sam
This and many other ridings in the Greater Montreal area will not be able to be called for a while. Here, Simon Marcil of the Bloc Quebecois won narrowly last time, but we have little indication of how they might perform given their varying fortunes. As the NDP have fallen in Quebec and will probably take 4th place in 2019, this should be a battle between the Liberals and Bloc, but it's not clear what the outcome will be. It should be one of the ridings to watch, however.

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