Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:18

Constituency Profile


Bonello-Stauch, Julian

Clénin, Hugo

Desroches, Gisèle

Goyette, Mathieu

Labelle, Marc

Sayegh, Isabel

Thériault, Luc


Luc Thériault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



874.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Luc Thériault 1940536.60%
Louis-Charles Thouin 1448427.30%
Martin Leclerc 1243123.50%
Gisèle DesRoches 50939.60%
Yumi Yow Mei Ang 9761.80%
Manon Perreault ** 6201.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (91.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (8.69% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A bloc stronghold prior to 2011 and the orange crush election. It returned to the Bloc fold in 2015 and it'll stay Bloc in 2019.
08/10/19 R.O.
You’d have to assume the bloc Quebecois will at least hold the seats they already have as polls show them doing slightly better. So an mp like Luc Theriault is likely to return to Ottawa.
04/09/19 A.S.
One of three seats where the 2015 Bloc vote surpassed 35%; so, bedrock as far as the present day goes. Also contains the core of the riding Francois Legault held for the PQ even through the 2007 Super Mario surge (oh, irony).
28/02/19 Sam
This region of the province is good for the Bloc and given the fact they are competing in other parts of the province, suggests this is safe, which it is likely to be. The NDP collapse should also support them here meaning there is little chance of any other result.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
NDP collapse in Quebec. New leader at the Bloc and rising in the polls. Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc. Victory of Luc Thériault hesitation.

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