Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:59

Constituency Profile


El-Khoury, Bruno Ibrahim

Henri, Edline

Ishak, Mariam

Khan, Shahid

Mintz, Lisa

Plante, Martin

Weishar, Lee

Zuberi, Sameer


Frank Baylis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



51.07 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Frank Baylis 3431958.70%
Valérie Assouline 1169420.00%
Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe ** 958416.40%
Natalie Laplante 20433.50%
Abraham Weizfeld 8651.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
New Liberal candidate here but the same result, Liberals will hold this riding.
07/10/19 R.O.
This is typically a very safe liberal seat in the montreal area. although 1 term mp Frank Baylis decided to not run again and liberal nomination meeting produced a rookie candidate with a questionable past. Many people have questions about the personal views held by Sameer Zuberi and his past activities. various independent and quebec media have tried to interview him but he is nowhere to be found this election. Although its typically such a safe liberal area it might not matter much. The cpc candidate is Mariam Ishak and it’s a riding where they’ve had some strong results . the bloc candidate is Edline Henri but they’ve never done well in this riding.
15/09/19 Marco Ricci
According to 'The Hill', there are 7 Liberal candidates for the new nomination being held tomorrow. That's probably because the candidates know that whoever wins the Liberal nomination is likely to be the next MP because this riding has voted Liberal since 1993, except for the Layton NDP Wave in 2011.
25/08/20 A.S.
Baylis made quick work of reversing what might have been the unlikeliest Orange Crush gain of 2011 (it'd be like Andrea Horwath snagging an Eglinton-Lawrence type of seat)--though it wasn't a complete sweep, thanks to the Cons hanging on to a blot of blue in Jewish Dollard; such is West Island federal politics in the 2010s. And that's even *less* likely to be leveraged into anything riding-wide in 2019.
21/06/19 seasaw
The incumbent Liberal MP, Frank Baylis isn't running, and while 38 point flips in Quebec have happened in the past, they've been during the Mulroney landslide of 1984, Bouchard in 1993, and Layton in 2011. I don't think there is an iota of a chance of that happening this time. Liberal landslide.
13/03/19 Sam
There's no real way anyone other than the Liberals will win here. The nearest challengers are the Conservatives and there's no chance of them overcoming a 38% margin.
17/02/19 JW
Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal.

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