Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:46:35

Constituency Profile


Amos, William

Belec, Mario

Bertrand, Claude

Blackburn, Dave

Carreiro-Benoit, Jonathan

Giroux, Denise

Lang, Louis

Stewart, Shawn


William Amos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



27281.85 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

William Amos 3415454.50%
Mathieu Ravignat ** 1409022.50%
Benjamin Woodman 871613.90%
Nicolas Lepage 43376.90%
Colin Griffiths 10891.70%
Pascal Médieu 1310.20%
Louis Lang 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 870.17%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (70.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (19.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals will hold on here. Should be a good result here for them on Monday.
02/10/19 R.O.
Historically been a federalist swing riding, went liberal by a large margin in 2015 but not that long ago had been ndp and conservative. Quiet race this year, no leaders have visited the riding. Dave Blackburn is the new cpc candidate this year after Benjamin Woodman decided to not run again. Greens only got 1 % last election but as recently as 2008 they got 5 % here so likely they do better this year.
03/09/19 A.S.
Even when Lawrence Cannon held the seat for CPC, he underperformed--that is, the Ottawa Valley "Cheryl Gallant echo-polls" that held such promise for the right in 2000 and 2004 turned out to have limited resonance beyond their own immediate sphere, so he depended on generic "Harper Quebec" momentum and opposition splits. (Trouble for him was, the true heart of Conservative Quebec turned out to be in the *other* National Capital Region.). Then the Orange Crush wiped Cannon out, only to be wiped out in its turn by Justinmania--and *absolute majority* Justinmania, at that. Yet the ghost lingers--the only polls Amos *didn't* win last time was that same old cluster of blue around Shawville. As w/the Jews in Dollard & Saint-Laurent, it doesn't matter *how* they vote, the rest of the riding'll decide otherwise...
22/04/19 seasaw
@M Lunn, Actually this has been a bellwether riding from 1980-2011 and again in 2015. The Tories won this riding big during the Mulroney years and again in 2006 and 2008. But regardless of who wins the next election, the Liberals will take this one, and can't see them losing here in the foreseeable future.
13/04/19 Sam
Another sign of the trend in Ottawa and Gatineau. Here and Gatineau have always been indicative of trends, and the lurch to the Liberals is the latest sign. They'll hold this, no longerperforming well just in Pontiac but in La Vallee de la Gatineau too.
20/03/19 Stevo
Not sure what happened to this seat. It was one of the top Reform/Alliance seats in Quebec, went Conservative twice during the Harper years (Lawrence Cannon helped, of course), and sits adjacent to Cheryl Gallant's seat in Eastern Ontario. This ought to be fertile ground for Scheer's Tories but it's swung so decidedly liberal-leftist that the CPC likely wouldn't bother wasting resources here today.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This went Tory in 2006 and 2008 due to their star candidate Lawrence Cannon, but considering how badly they did in 2015 never mind the readjusted boundaries are much less favourable, I think it is fair to say this will stay Liberal. NDP way to weak unlike 2011 to be a challenge here.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Asides from 2011, Liberals have always held this and while not always by big margins as south of the autoroute is more nationalist than north of it, they would need to be looking at fewer than 20 seats in Quebec before this would come into play and that is not the case at the moment.

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