Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-08-05 19:46:25

Constituency Profile


Boutin, Bianca

Dabiré, Gnouzaola Bruno

Duclos, Jean-Yves

Gagnon, Christiane


Jean-Yves Duclos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34.56 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean-Yves Duclos 1556628.90%
Annick Papillon ** 1456627.00%
Pierre-Thomas Asselin 1173721.80%
Charles Mordret 1015318.80%
Philippe Riboty 15702.90%
Normand Fournier 1530.30%
Danielle Provost 1220.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/08/20 Sam
I'm surprised I hadn't predicted this earlier - but it looks as if the waters have been less muddied. A Liberal win was never likely last time, but it happened, and ultimately is there any reason why Duclos won't hold up? Not really. And the CPC are hampered both by the candidacy of Christine Gagnon for that small but important BQ/CPC vote that we've seen to the north, but their own candidate having to fight between two bigger names. Regardless, QuebecCityOliver clearly knows his riding well - the poll has corroborated his assertions, and so I'll definitely put this into the Liberal column myself.
04/08/20 seasaw
At the moment, according to a Mainstreet Poll, the Liberals have a 7 point lead over the CPC, with Bloc in third place and NDP not even in the picture. Things may change in the future, but at the moment it looks like a Liberal hold. It's safe to say that all three parties have a shot, but at the moment the Liberals are on top.
03/08/20 Marco Ricci
New Mainstreet riding poll today has Jean-Yves Duclos ahead by 7 points. Not a guaranteed Liberal win yet, but leaning in that direction. Conservatives 2nd, BQ 3rd, NDP 4th.
02/08/20 J.F. Breton
Sondage Mainstreet Polls (July 23th-24th, 2019): Liberals (33%), Conservatives (25%), Bloc (21%), NDP (8%), Greens (8%), PPC (3%), Others (2%).
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-jean-yves-duclos-en-avance-62a8ffae8a7368b43a141eb27eb1b3a1
27/07/19 QuebecCityOliver
I will go out on a limb and say that the CPC cannot win this seat. I made a mistake last time by thinking that a split vote could help them but not here. Either the Bloc or Liberals then as the NDP bleed votes somewhere else but not to the CPC.
Likewise I think this effect will help Lightbound to the west and the Liberals to the North in Limoilou-Beauport.
Incumbency is over-rated in Quebec City. Being a cabinet minister, though. That helps.
All too early, really.
18/07/19 Sam
I agree this is going to be hard to call. Duclos is of course a strong incumbent cabinet minister, but the challenge against him is more spirited than in other marginal ridings. The CPC and Bloc both have a chance. Of course, the CPC will have to take votes from more than just the declining NDP to win, and the Bloc will need to hold up and sweep votes in the riverside parts of the riding. This all suggests the Liberals have an edge - but a strong performance from either of the other two parties could evaporate that edge. One thing we can all project, and that is the NDP are going to collapse.
20/05/19 Marco Ricci
This is probably now a race between the Liberals & the BQ. Former BQ MP Christiane Gagnon, who held this riding between 1993-2011, says she plans to run again because she likes the new BQ leader Yves-François Blanchet:
06/04/19 Legolas
This is a really tricky seat for me to call. I think it could go Liberal, NDP or Bloc depending on the various factors which could play in (with an outside shot for the CPC with a good vote split). The Liberals currently hold the seat but Quebec Solidaire did well provincially, which could benefit either the Bloc or the NDP depending on who can channel their support most. The Vanier area of the seat is CAQ provincially and voted CPC federally, but that's really where the CPC can top out, as the downtown polls they usually got single digits or the low teens, and I do not think that will change this election. Hopefully a pollster decides to poll this riding.
05/03/19 Neal
This is probably the one riding in the Vielle Capitale region that will not with near certainty go Conservative.
Looking at the results in the last few elections it shows that it could be a race among three (The NDP will not likely be a factor this time) Liberal Conservative or Bloc.
This riding includes much of the provincial riding of Taschereau, long held by the left wing Pequiste Agnes Maltais, and which went to the far left Quebec Solidaire in the 2018 provincial election, with the CAQ finishing respectably. We will have to see how the general numbers move, minly will there actually be a Bloc resurgence? or are we just seeing a temporary blip?

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