Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:37:09

Constituency Profile


Boutin, Bianca

Bureau, Tommy

CoRhino, Sébastien

Dabiré, Bruno

Duclos, Jean-Yves

Gagnon, Christiane

Joli-Coeur, Luc

Paquin, Luc


Jean-Yves Duclos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34.56 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean-Yves Duclos 1556628.90%
Annick Papillon ** 1456627.00%
Pierre-Thomas Asselin 1173721.80%
Charles Mordret 1015318.80%
Philippe Riboty 15702.90%
Normand Fournier 1530.30%
Danielle Provost 1220.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 J.F. Breton
Nouveau sondage Mainstreet qui place les Libéraux nettement en avance:
- Libéraux (39%)
- Bloc (27%)
- Conservateurs (17%)
- NPD (8%)
- Verts (6%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-duclos-toujours-en-avance-dans-quebec-c5bf5887d77857e3d82d15ad16e35c31
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Gagnon, the BQ candidate, is a 5 term MP for this area so she is going to make this close. Still I think Duclos' being in cabinet will keep this seat Liberal.
15/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
I am willing to change my prediction but I would point out that CAQ holds the other provincial seat that covers this riding. The real question is not right or left, anyway. It is always soft nationalists and will they vote for the Bloc.
I am saying yes.
15/10/19 Mark
This is going to be close but I think we're just outside ‘too close to call’ at the moment and can put this down as another Bloc win barring a sudden swing in momentum.
After the debates and with word on the street the way it is (yes, BQ positive but mostly LPC negative) I'd be surprised to see the Liberals snatch this one away. Polls are close though so we shall see!
12/10/19 Anthony
This has traditionally been the most nationalist area of Quebec City both federally and provincially. Quebec Solidaire holds two seats provincially within the boundaries of this riding. With the Bloc gaining in the polls expect them to take this one back from the Liberals.
10/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
As the CPC voters go back to the Bloc, this has to be one of those seats that could tip back to the BQ - a very strong candidate (5-time winner and former MP), however, one has to assume that Duclos will hang on barring some fantastic improvement for the Bloc in the next week and a half.
01/10/19 J.F. Breton
Mainstreet Polls are very interesting in Québec City central area. Lightbound (Liberals - Louis-Hebert) is in very good position to win. This morning, Mainstreet shows a close race in Beauport- Limoilou between Liberal and Conservatives (2% of difference). In this situation, with the Mainstreet of july in Québec riding (Liberals was in good position), I guess Duclos will keep his seat.
27/09/19 GillesB02
Tough call on this one, it could go either red or blue, with the red team having the advantage with a cabinet minister. On the other end, Liberal supports are at 2015 level. The question is where the NDP votes will go. Only E-day will tell.
13/09/19 QuebecCityOliver
Given that the best result in 2019 in the 7 core seats of Quebec City was Deltell's with just over 50% and the weakest was Duclos' with just under 29% it makes people think that the same dynamic will play out in 2019 despite the NDP sweeping all 7 in 2011.
Yes. Quebec now includes all of Duberger, Vanier and Les Saules along with Montcalm and Cap Diament. A diverse riding but mostly a rental inner city urban riding. Not a typical CPC riding unlike Charlesbourg, say. But, as always, consider that the division in Quebec politics is federalism and the CPC has tried to be Bloc lite (the NDP was way, way better at it, btw) and get some of those voters or ex-voters. I just don't think there are that many available.
Every vote is different. I don't think Quebec will be the swing riding this time.
07/09/19 A.S.
Quebec-the-riding is actually not as ‘urban’ as it looks--the reason why CPC appears to be in contention is the suburban panhandle extending out into Vanier and Duberger-Les Saules. But all sorts of things complicate *everything* here, whether it be Gagnon's bid for a Bloc comeback or the likelihood of vestigial NPD/Green support. Duclos might have prevailed in '15 through statistical happenstance; but one certainly can't deny that the Libs nominated well (thus Duclos in cabinet), and the fact that he won at all palpably demonstrates the urban inroads made by Team Justin. So against the once-again split-up opposition, he could well Hedy Fry himself back into office. (And I mean pre-2015 Hedy Fry, i.e. the kind who could win with a third of the vote or less.)
24/08/20 Tyler S.
This seat historically has gone Bloc, with good showings from the CPC in years where they did ok province-wide. If you forget the Mainstreet poll and look at most riding projections and proportional and uniform swing models, it's a dead heat between CPC and LPC. I think the CPC will squeak it out
21/08/20 QuebecCityOliver
I want to make clear that this is not my riding. I live in Limooilou albeit close enough to the Quebec riding that I could reach part of it in about 2 minutes - on foot.
And, again. I know it is 60 days to go as of today, it is still to early to really make predictions.
The electorate is difficult to read but always remember, in QC, Scheer is not from QC, May is not from QC. Best not to say anything about Jagmeet and my fellow Quebecers/Quebecois(e)s opinions.
06/08/20 Sam
I'm surprised I hadn't predicted this earlier - but it looks as if the waters have been less muddied. A Liberal win was never likely last time, but it happened, and ultimately is there any reason why Duclos won't hold up? Not really. And the CPC are hampered both by the candidacy of Christine Gagnon for that small but important BQ/CPC vote that we've seen to the north, but their own candidate having to fight between two bigger names. Regardless, QuebecCityOliver clearly knows his riding well - the poll has corroborated his assertions, and so I'll definitely put this into the Liberal column myself.
04/08/20 seasaw
At the moment, according to a Mainstreet Poll, the Liberals have a 7 point lead over the CPC, with Bloc in third place and NDP not even in the picture. Things may change in the future, but at the moment it looks like a Liberal hold. It's safe to say that all three parties have a shot, but at the moment the Liberals are on top.
03/08/20 Marco Ricci
New Mainstreet riding poll today has Jean-Yves Duclos ahead by 7 points. Not a guaranteed Liberal win yet, but leaning in that direction. Conservatives 2nd, BQ 3rd, NDP 4th.
02/08/20 J.F. Breton
Sondage Mainstreet Polls (July 23th-24th, 2019): Liberals (33%), Conservatives (25%), Bloc (21%), NDP (8%), Greens (8%), PPC (3%), Others (2%).
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-jean-yves-duclos-en-avance-62a8ffae8a7368b43a141eb27eb1b3a1
27/07/19 QuebecCityOliver
I will go out on a limb and say that the CPC cannot win this seat. I made a mistake last time by thinking that a split vote could help them but not here. Either the Bloc or Liberals then as the NDP bleed votes somewhere else but not to the CPC.
Likewise I think this effect will help Lightbound to the west and the Liberals to the North in Limoilou-Beauport.
Incumbency is over-rated in Quebec City. Being a cabinet minister, though. That helps.
All too early, really.
18/07/19 Sam
I agree this is going to be hard to call. Duclos is of course a strong incumbent cabinet minister, but the challenge against him is more spirited than in other marginal ridings. The CPC and Bloc both have a chance. Of course, the CPC will have to take votes from more than just the declining NDP to win, and the Bloc will need to hold up and sweep votes in the riverside parts of the riding. This all suggests the Liberals have an edge - but a strong performance from either of the other two parties could evaporate that edge. One thing we can all project, and that is the NDP are going to collapse.
20/05/19 Marco Ricci
This is probably now a race between the Liberals & the BQ. Former BQ MP Christiane Gagnon, who held this riding between 1993-2011, says she plans to run again because she likes the new BQ leader Yves-François Blanchet:
06/04/19 Legolas
This is a really tricky seat for me to call. I think it could go Liberal, NDP or Bloc depending on the various factors which could play in (with an outside shot for the CPC with a good vote split). The Liberals currently hold the seat but Quebec Solidaire did well provincially, which could benefit either the Bloc or the NDP depending on who can channel their support most. The Vanier area of the seat is CAQ provincially and voted CPC federally, but that's really where the CPC can top out, as the downtown polls they usually got single digits or the low teens, and I do not think that will change this election. Hopefully a pollster decides to poll this riding.
05/03/19 Neal
This is probably the one riding in the Vielle Capitale region that will not with near certainty go Conservative.
Looking at the results in the last few elections it shows that it could be a race among three (The NDP will not likely be a factor this time) Liberal Conservative or Bloc.
This riding includes much of the provincial riding of Taschereau, long held by the left wing Pequiste Agnes Maltais, and which went to the far left Quebec Solidaire in the 2018 provincial election, with the CAQ finishing respectably. We will have to see how the general numbers move, minly will there actually be a Bloc resurgence? or are we just seeing a temporary blip?

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