Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:47:50

Constituency Profile


Beauregard, Diane

Benslimane, Meryem

Boucher Granger, Micheline

Branchaud, Pierre

Larose, Josée

Pauzé, Monique

Saint-Laurent, Samuel


Monique Pauzé

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



198.77 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Monique Pauzé 2261834.70%
Adriana Dudas 1779827.30%
Réjean Bellemare 1516723.30%
Jonathan Lefebvre 705310.80%
Johnathan Cloutier 13332.00%
Yoland Gilbert 12421.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A BQ stronghold except for 2011, I expect them to win this pretty handily this yr. given their rise in the polls this year.
09/10/19 R.O.
Long time bloc Quebecois riding with the exception of 2011 when it went ndp, likely to stay bloc this year as Monique Pauze the incumbent and bloc polling better.
04/09/19 A.S.
Francois Legault may be the de facto Quebec proxy for conservative leaders in the ROC; but when it comes to federal politics, he knows better than to offer a universal apple-cart-upsetting endorsement for CPC. So as far as his federal home riding is concerned, the CAQ Premier will forever carry the integrity of being a former high-profile PQ minister--and, they shall vote accordingly.
28/04/19 Sam
J.F. Breton has already explained what I think. Even if the Bloc were to go down on their current haul of 10, something that isn't believed to be on the cards, they should win here. As said they may get a lot of support from the Legault voters.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
NDP collapse in Quebec. New leader at the Bloc and rising in the polls. Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc. And this is the riding of the Premier Legault. Victory of Monique Pauzé without hesitation.

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