Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:40

Constituency Profile


Guérin, Olivier

Horth-Lepage, Laura

Landry, Jean

Nolin, Olivier

Patry, Marc

Rayes, Alain


Alain Rayes

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3433.01 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alain Rayes 1850531.60%
Marc Desmarais 1446324.70%
Myriam Beaulieu 1421324.20%
Olivier Nolin 1006817.20%
Laurier Busque 9841.70%
Antoine Dubois 3840.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A seat that the Conservatives party held during the Chretien yrs. It has seen Bloc MP's as well (Even being Bloc in the 2011 orange crush election). That said Rayes is a strong candidate for the CPC and he should hold on here.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
Keep a watch on the polls this week. If the CPC continue to slide in Quebec and the BQ continue to rise, then this seat will be in play. If things level out (as I think they have) or the trends reverse, then this seat will stay CPC.
27/09/19 R.O.
Alain Rayes is a strong incumbent and a high profile conservative mp from Quebec . not necessary a naturally conservative riding but has been conservative in the past.
16/09/19 J.F. Breton
Mainstreet Poll: Rayes is in good position.
- Conservatives (43%)
- Liberals (27%)
- Bloc (16%)
- Greens (7%)
- PPC (3%)
- NDP (3%)
Source: https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/alain-rayes-en-controle-dans-richmond-arthabaska-selon-mainstreet
06/09/19 A.S.
Rayes may have had a low share in '15; but he was a star candidate working within a genuine 4-way dynamic--the waning Orange Crush and rising Justin ships passing in the night, and open-seat Bloc incumbency, yet. And without him it might not have been so easy for the Cons, maybe even something like a Drummond-y 4th place finish--Rayes' Victoriaville mayoralty led him to dominate Arthabaska, but the Richmond part of the riding was more of a Lib-NDP draw. Still, being in lends him a cast of permanency, especially with CPC shares in QC remaining relatively stable; and the nature of Con support in its Franco-Quebec strongholds is the sort that draws from all camps, ADQ-style. And I'm not sure whether flubbing the abortion issue relative to Quebec candidacies is the kind of ballot-box thing that'd be held against Rayes.
06/04/19 Legolas
The Conservatives are polling decently in Quebec and they shouldn't have any issue holding this seat. Rayes is locally popular and helped the CPC flip a seat they had not held since 2000. Rayes is a hardworker and has basically become the face of the CPC in Quebec, and shouldn't have a problem being re-elected.
03/04/19 Sam
I fully agree with the other two posters; I expect Rayes to improve his vote share, and I don't see the opposition as a substantial enough threat.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Tough call - but what do we know for sure? NPD will be down, BQ may be up a little, Liberals may be up a little. Rayes is sitting on 31% support from last time; hardly a boast-worthy base of support, but he still got more votes than anyone else. With his incumbency and the Conservatives on the rebound he's still the likeliest to win. Liberals haven't won Richmond since 1984, and in the late 90's, early 2000's it was the one seat in Quebec the Tories could squeak out. I suspect they'll do that again.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Alain Rayes is really not in danger. Easy win for the Conservatives in Centre-du-Québec. Rayes, former mayor, has stong local roots.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster