Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:47:34

Constituency Profile


Fortin, Rhéal

Fréchette, Sylvie

Gagnon, Florence

Leckman, Joey

Michaud, Normand

Ouellette, Myriam

Riqueur-Lainé, Nicolas

St-Gelais, Lucie


Rhéal Fortin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



357.32 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rhéal Fortin 1815732.00%
Pierre Dionne Labelle ** 1707730.10%
Janice Bélair Rolland 1493326.40%
Romain Vignol 47938.50%
Joey Leckman 14362.50%
Fobozof A. Côté 2610.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Frechette is a well known athlete, that'll help. Still it won't be enough for the Conservatives to win the seat. The BQ hold this.
08/10/19 R.O.
Sylvie Frechette a former Olympic swimmer was announced as the conservative candidate for this riding near the end of the summer . although haven’t heard much about the riding since and not sure if any leaders have campaigned in the riding. With the exception of 2011, the riding has been solidly bloc Quebecois for some time .
04/09/19 A.S.
Fortin didn't win by much; but what's more critical is that the Libs were third behind the NPD incumbent. And given how this was a traditional Bloc stronghold of the sort that the Orange Crush interval "shadowed", it's hard to see this falling unless the Bloc's reduced to four (or less) once again--particularly given Fortin's erstwhile interim-leader status. And it seems like the Cons' Frechette gambit has been overtaken by the kinds of policy issues that demonstrate how hard it is to un-scary a "scary party"--but even without that, it'd require a veritable retro-Mulroney Blue Crush to elect her, or a 2006 Harper-vs-Martin dynamic to even get her to 2nd...
28/08/19 RD
Former Olympic gold medallist Sylvie Frechette is running for the Conservatives here and she just might have ths star power to win it!
16/07/19 Laurence Putnam
While I see major Liberal gains in Quebec at the expense of the NPD and in Eastern Montreal in seats the BQ used to win reliably, it's difficult to imagine a Liberal win here. I would expect a big chunk of the NPD vote in the last two cycles to gravitate in the direction of the BQ's strong incumbent here.
01/03/19 Sam
This riding could be close but ultimately the Bloc have tan upper hand; they have a strong incumbent in Rheal Fortin and the NDP have no real ability to challenge here given their ongoing decline. The Bloc are bound to put vast resources into keeping it and getting the 12 seats for Official Party Status, whereas it is just another riding for the Liberals. The Liberals could take it if the tide turns heavily in their direction, but some of the NDP collapse will go to the Bloc rather than just to the Liberals.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
NDP collapse in Quebec. New leader at the Bloc and rising in the polls. Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc. Victory of Rhéal Fortin without hesitation.

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