Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:19:10

Constituency Profile


Baudelot, Sonia

Faour, Ali

Migliozzi, Emilio

Nitoi, Lizabel

Progakis, Elias

Robillard, Yves

Tran Le, Bao


Yves Robillard

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



52.78 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Yves Robillard 2232340.90%
Marie-Josée Lemieux 1282723.50%
Patrice Jasmin-Tremblay 1182021.70%
Nicolas Makridis 649811.90%
Lorna Mungur 10571.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 900.19%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (58.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (30.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Laval-Les Îles
   (8.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Not much being said about this riding since the BQ started rising but maybe there should. They've held this riding in the past and I think they win it back on Monday.
02/09/19 A.S.
The ‘softest’ of Laval's Liberal seats (in part due to its north-shoredom) and the only one with provincial ADQ representation (ditto)--and they still managed over 40% in '15. The Bloc's better off concentrating on picking off the pair of North Shore ridings the Libs presently hold.
14/06/19 Laurence Putnam
While I would not say this is best classified as a safe Liberal seat, it is safe tol go Liberal this time.
Conservatives a non factor here. NPD, polling 13% in the province also a non-factor. Bloc would have to double their votes over the last result to win. They should rebound a little and certainly come second but won't do well enough to really threaten.
Therefore, by process of elimination...it will be an uninspired Liberal victory.
08/03/19 Sam
In line with my projections for Alfred-Pellan and Vimy, this a Liberal riding in Laval with split opposition. Even if Yves Robillard retires the Liberals should hold this as their vote is going to hold up.

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