Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:41:49

Constituency Profile


Chenail, André-Philippe

Hivon, Marc

Normandin, Christine

Reeves, Chantal

Rioux, Jean

Savary, Yvon

Thibert, Martin


Jean Rioux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



686.33 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean Rioux 2002233.20%
Hans Marotte 1755529.10%
Denis Hurtubise 1497924.80%
Stéphane Guinta 654910.80%
Marilyn Redivo 12812.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
This former Bloc stronghold will return to the Bloc fold in 2019.
17/10/19 J.F. Breton
Selon le plus récent sondage Léger, les Libéraux et Bloquistes sont au coude-à-coude au Québec à 31%. À l’extérieur de Montréal, l’influence du Bloc se fait le plus sentir : le parti est largement en avance en Montérégie (39 %), dans Lanaudière/Laurentides (45 %) et dans le Centre-du-Québec (36 %). De très fortes chances que Saint-Jean bascule du côté du Bloc.
12/10/19 Daniel Beaudin
Truer words were never spoken A.S. According to TCTC, Bloc is at 38% while Liberals are at 27%. Insurmountable for JT and crowd.
04/09/19 A.S.
This has tended to be the Quebec version of a bellwether--and while 2015's just under a third of the vote may look unpromising for the Libs, so does just under a quarter of the vote for the Bloc. (Though vote-poaching from a controversial NPD candidate might explain the latter case--somehow, it seems that whatever motivated *that* vote to be plumped might as well boomerang back to the Bloc. But in that case, we might as well be seeing their seat totals doubling, tripling, and beyond.)
24/07/19 seasaw
Liberal hold. The NDP has totally collapsed, Bloc may become competitive but not enough to win.
08/03/19 Sam
Although the Liberals won a very low share of the vote last time they still win substantially, and given that the NDP are shedding votes they would have to mostly go to the Bloc to win this. With the Liberals doing well in Quebec they have a definite edge here but a Bloc win should not yet be ruled out.

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