Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:35

Constituency Profile


Boisguérin, Barthélémy

Champagne, François-Philippe

Courchesne, Bruno-Pier

Déziel, Julie

Dufresne, Stéphanie

Morin, Nicole


François-Philippe Champagne

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34573.41 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

François-Philippe Champagne 2447541.50%
Jean-Yves Tremblay 1224520.80%
Sacki Carignan Deschamps 1129519.20%
Jacques Grenier 959216.30%
Martial Toupin 11441.90%
Jean-Paul Bédard 1960.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 890.16%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (87.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
The political home of Jean Chretien became a Bloc stronghold following Chretien's retirement but has now returned to a federalist. Champagne has become a relatively strong minister for Trudeau and he should hold on here.
07/09/19 A.S.
It's as if the pending Justin victory led voters to channel that old ‘le p'tit gars de Shawinigan’ spirit again; because otherwise, in this kind of geography, there'd be no reason for the Libs to have won by a 2:1 margin--heck, Jean Chretien was the one thing preventing this territory from going autopilot BQ in the 90s (and sure enough, it went insta-Bloc upon his retirement). And given that margin and cabinet positioning, defeat for Champagne's not terribly likely now--or if it is, it could well be more from an advancing QuebecCon front than from the Bloc; unless the lingering stink from Herouxville flings that tendency into the PPC pit instead (to say nothing of ensuring that Jagmeet has no chance around these parts)
04/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Incumbent will be drinking his namesake within 45 minutes of polls close.
03/03/19 Marco Ricci
I agree with the poster below that this riding favours the Liberals again. This riding was famous for many years as the riding of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. When Chrétien retired, it went to the BQ during the Sponsorship Scandal and then to the NDP during the Layton Wave. But François-Philippe Champagne won the riding by 20 points in 2015, and now is a Minister. This may be why the new BQ leader, Yves-François Blanchet, who lives here, has decided to run somewhere else:
01/03/19 Sam
This riding will go Liberal; the opposition is completely split with the nearest challengers in the NDP declining and the Bloc and Conservatives winning only in exceptional circumstances. This allowed a 20% margin of victory in 2015. On top of that, the incumbent MP has had a major profile being in cabinet on two important files for the area. When all factors are considered the Liberals should retain this seat.

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