Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:57

Constituency Profile


Breton, Pierre

Clermont, Nathalie

Daviault, Darlène

Larouche, Andréanne

Plamondon, Raymonde

Sabbagh, Mariam

Turgeon, Katherine


Pierre Breton

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1370.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Breton 2295739.00%
Claire Mailhot 1394523.70%
Jocelyn Beaudoin 1309222.20%
Sylvie Fontaine 752912.80%
Simon McMillan 13972.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
Bloc Quebecois leader Yves Francois Blanchet is making campaign stops in this riding this weekend , seen as safe liberal earlier in the campaign but apparently the bloc see potential. It had been bloc from 2004-2008 but ndp and liberal in most recent elections.
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A seat that has gone Bloc in the past but has also seen representation from the other parties as well. I think in 2019 Pierre Breton will hold this seat for the Liberals.
23/09/19 J.F. Breton
Pierre Breton (Liberals) in good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberals (47%)
- Bloc (24%)
- Conservatives (16%)
- Greens (5%)
- NDP (4%)
- PPC (2%)
Source: https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/elections-federales-2019-pierre-breton-en-tete-dans-shefford-video-9fd2e953d6620a29bed9c72d401f0411
05/09/19 A.S.
In fact, Shefford was *not* a Mulroney seat--Jean Lapierre held it for the Libs in '84 and '88--yet it *did* fall to the Charest Tories in '97; and provincially, it's long been the idiosyncratic enclave for ADQ-survivor-turned-CAQ Francois Bonnardel. So it's an odd cookie of a seat all around, casting a proxy aura of oddity even when it opts for ‘normalcy’, like the present Justin Liberal status quo--somehow, I can see that ‘odd-normality’ continuing...
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
These Eastern Township seats are very unsteady for any party; reliable Mulroney seats that returned PQ MNAs at the same time they voted against separation in 1995; only to return PC's in 1997, Liberals in 2000; BQ after 2004; NDP during the orange wave...now back to Liberal. Lots of soft nationalist votes here which an opposing party with a plan or right timing can capitalize on - but until something major changes, it ought to stay Liberal.
21/03/19 Branden M
Given the Liberals 15% win in 2015, unless the BQ make an incredible comeback, Shefford will stay Liberal
27/02/19 Sam
This riding went Liberal by a significant enough margin in 2015 that it is hard to see it going to another party. The Bloc Quebecois have the biggest chance of taking it but this will not be one of their top-tier targets due to the large Liberal margin of victory.

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