Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:42:06

Constituency Profile


Cox, Karen

MacDonald, Amanda

Rouillard, Noémie

Schiefke, Peter

Stiff, Cameron

Tam, Kaylin


Peter Schiefke

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



393.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Schiefke 3055046.60%
Jamie Nicholls ** 1462722.30%
Vincent François 985815.00%
Marc Boudreau 904813.80%
Jennifer Kaszel 14452.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Seat has been Bloc as lately as 2011, NDP held it from 2011-2015 and it has been Liberal since 2015. I think the Liberals hold on here in 2019.
04/09/19 A.S.
Even through its Bloc phase, this seat was always "meant to be" Liberal--and the removal of most of Soulanges made the repatriation task that much easier. (The NDP in 2011 is another grand-coalition matter, helped by Jack Layton having been a Hudson boy--even in 2015, the "gratitude vote" kept them above par in otherwise affluent-Anglo-bedrock Hudson. But it's interesting how on E-day in 2015, the NDP only tied in one poll, while the Bloc won a flurry, mostly in Les Cedres.)
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Liberals are too far out in front for anyone to take them on. NPD is dead; BQ has way better targets to go after than this, and Tories don't stand a chance. Liberal win.
27/02/19 Sam
This should be an easy win for the incumbent Peter Schiefke, who currently has no major detractors and has been effective and prominent within the Liberal caucus. Although they have previously won low vote totals these were in bad Quebec elections for the Liberals, which is very unlikely to be the case this time according to virtually all polls. The Liberal win at the provincial level in the riding of Vaudreuil will also be a good sign, and also suggests it would be a major shock if any other candidate won.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While this has gone for other parties, those were in bad elections for the Liberals so they should hold this without too much difficulty.

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