Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:43

Constituency Profile


Aubin, Robert

Charbonneau, Louise

Duplessis, Marie

Gingras, Marc André

Lévesque, Yves

Renaud-Martin, Valérie

St-Onge Lynch, Ronald


Robert Aubin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



125.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Aubin ** 1919331.80%
Yvon Boivin 1822430.20%
Dominic Therrien 1123118.60%
André Valois 1024917.00%
Éric Trottier 10321.70%
Maxime Rousseau 3600.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5831.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (24.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R S G
Three way race will favour the Liberal candidate who also, like the Conservative is a high profile former Trois Rivieres Councillor . Much like ridings like Sherbrooke and Beauport–Limoilou a 3 way races.
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
An election that's going to be interesting to watch on Monday. The NDP currently hold it but it was close in 2015 and they have slipped in the province since then. The CPC are running the mayor of Trois Rivieres here and I think they'll win this riding back for the first time since the 1988 election.
17/10/19 J.F Breton
Ce sera sans doute le seul gain des Conservateurs au Québec, à l'arrachée, beaucoup en raison de la personnalité d'Yves Lévesque. J'aurais dû m'en tenir à ma première prévision. Récent sondage Mainstreet:
- Conservateurs (30%)
- Libéraux (25%)
- Bloc (22%)
- NPD (17%)
Source: https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-yves-levesque-en-tete-dans-trois-rivieres-e5819a33ebc793dcc6559eb74110f92b
14/10/19 Stevo
How bizarre. The Conservatives collapse in rural Pontiac but surge in Trois Rivières?? Par for the course I suppose given Quebec's history of seemingly random and unexplained shifts in party support. I said last time that the NDP would only be taken down in T-R amidst a province-wide collapse. Clearly that has happened and the beneficiary here will be the Liberal candidate.
11/09/19 Marco Ricci
This riding should be changed to Too Close To Call. There is a close race between the Liberals in 1st and the Conservatives a strong 2nd. New poll by Mainstreet for Trois-Rivières published in Le Soliel today:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 28%
BQ: 20%
NDP: 5%
11/09/19 J.F. Breton
Apparently, Liberals are in good position in Trois-Rivières. Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberal (35,9%)
- Conservatives (28,2%)
- Bloc (20,2%)
- Greens (5,9%)
- NDP (5,3%)
- PPC (2,6%)
Source: https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-rivieres-e953766c147884e402a0ad87993eb365
06/09/19 A.S.
If Victoriaville's Alain Rayes could do it in '15, why not TR's Yves Levesque in 2019? Though it *could* be problematic insofar as TR is a larger urban centre--a N Shore counterpart to Sherbrooke, right down to its sticking with the NPD in '15 (but unlike Sherbrooke, CAQ won TR with QS far behind in third)--and it's these larger urban centres that are, on paper at least, more prone to taking a Justin swing nowadays. Except that Aubin running again could wind up splitting *that* vote--so yeah, here we go again, another splitting left-vote, another elected Conservative in the cards, etc...
07/05/19 J.F. Breton
Last news! Yves Lévesque, former mayor of Trois-Rivières, is preparing the official announcement of his candidacy for the federal election. Well known and highly appreciated, he will be a very very good candidate for PCC.
26/03/19 Sam
This is a probable Liberal gain, but there have been suggestions that the Conservatives could win here. Robert Aubin is likely finished, he's in a better position than some of his colleagues south of the Saint Lawrence River but still in an unenviable situation.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
With Singh victory yesterday, we can predict the final collapse of the NDP in Quebec. It will remain 3 or 4 MPs if they are lucky. Robert Aubin would have done better as mayor of Trois-Rivières. Liberal gain.

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