Election Prediction Project

Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:44:05

Constituency Profile


Bourque, Nadia

Cusmano, Liana Canton

Forian, Michael

Gaudet, Tommy

Langlais, Jean

Miller, Marc

O'Sullivan, Louise B.

Patenaude, Marc

Sullivan, Linda

Thiébaut, Sophie


Marc Miller

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marc Miller 2549150.80%
Allison Turner 1175723.40%
Steve Shanahan 594811.90%
Chantal St-Onge 43078.60%
Daniel Green 23984.80%
Daniel Wolfe 1610.30%
William Sloan 1020.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Jeanne-Le Ber
   (61.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (36.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal MP Marc Miller should hold on here.
02/09/19 A.S.
The ‘downtown Montreal’ riding, which one'd *assume* as solid Liberal; but taking in a lot of ‘Tyrone Benskin’ country to the south that resulted in a surprisingly high notional NDP advantage in 2011. As it turns out, Daniel Green's running in Outremont rather than here; still, the trajectory of this sort of urbanity is such that gentrification or no gentrification, either the NDP or Greens could contend for a distant artsy-lefty second place anyhow--that is, if downtown yuppies and Nun's Islanders aren't enough to hand it to the Cons. (And of course, Justin slept here after 24 Sussex.)
19/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Liberal by default. The riding simply lacks a feasible alternative.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
With 50% in last election, it's a Liberal gain without more questions. And if Daniel Green runs again, he will take NDP's vote.
28/02/19 Sam
The Liberals won a majority of votes last time, and the area voted for Liberals provincially, showing that this riding is going Liberal this time, given their strong performance in Montreal. As was seen in the Outremont by-election, the NDP should collapse and all other parties will be too far behind.

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