Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:05

Constituency Profile


Ali, Intab

Dingwall, Tom

Hadley, Allen Keith

Holland, Mark

Knight, Maia

Malik, Shokat

Russo, Susanna


Mark Holland

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



67.00 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Holland 3145855.90%
Chris Alexander ** 1937434.40%
Stephanie Brown 46308.20%
Jeff Hill 7881.40%
Bob Kesic 570.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 530.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rod Phillips 1907839.05%
Monique Hughes 1513030.97%
Joe Dickson * 1260725.8%
Stephen Leahy 12242.51%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2140.53%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A lot of things can happen in an election. I think Ajax changing parties won't happen, Liberal hold.
18/10/19 Marco Ricci
‘Liberal incumbents Mark Holland and Karina Gould look poised to reclaim their seats in Ajax and Burlington Ont., respectively, new polls from Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggests.’
28/09/19 DurhamDave
Even if the Liberals lose every other riding in Durham, they'll still hold on to this one. A strong incumbent combined with a weaker NDP should safely keep Ajax in the Liberal column.
18/09/19 R.O.
A lot of the posts mention how unwinnable the riding is for the conservatives as its grown and changed over the years. except the riding has actually voted conservative twice in recent elections , 2011 federally and 2018 provincially so not sure that argument holds up in reality and perhaps it’s a closer race than 2015 although Mark Hollands has the advantage at this point .
18/08/20 MF
I concur with A.S. With growing Black and South Asian populations, Ajax is increasingly looking like eastern Scarborough. And Mark Holland is a respected MP whose vote held up rather well in the 2011 debacle, so he shouldn't have any problem now.
08/08/20 A.S.
Ajax's best-Lib-in-Durham status hinges upon three things: (1) its increasing integrality with inner-GTA electoral dynamics ("outer Scarborough", so to speak), (2) the lack of an Uxbridgean rural tail, (3) the Mark Holland machine. Curiously, when the former Ajax-Pickering was a new seat a decade and a half ago, it was viewed as potentially low-hanging Conservative fruit, playing off its Flaherty/Ecker-skewed notional provincial numbers. But things have changed, and even "star candidate" Rod Phillips couldn't make the 40% threshold for the provincial PCs last year.
21/07/19 seasaw
At the moment, this looks like a Liberal hold. Even if the CPC does very well in 905, which there's a good chance they might, this riding will be one of the last ones to turn blue, there 10 other ridings in the region that are going to go blue before this one does.
28/06/19 Craig
I agree about Ajax staying Liberal. It is definitely the most Liberal-friendly riding in Durham Region, as unlike next door in Pickering-Uxbridge there is no rural component to counteract the urban Liberal support, while Whitby and outer Oshawa tend to be swing areas. Mark Holland only narrowly lost in 2011, while even provincially in 2018 it took significant vote splitting to elect a PC MPP here.
For that reason, Holland should be reasonably secure here. The Liberal support has recovered in suburban Ontario (primarily from middle class to affluent, well educated demographics) due to the unpopularity of Doug Ford and federal connections, which should help them in Ajax especially towards the lakeshore. The Conservatives might find support in the northern part of the riding, but it won't be enough. Liberal hold.
14/06/19 Leaning Blue
Nominated candidate for the Conservative Party is Tom Dingwall. Family man and a super guy. Watch out Mark Holland. There are steps creeping up behind you and you are in for a surprise
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Only in really strong elections such as 2011 federally and 2018 provincially do the Tories win this and even in those two it was by pretty small margins. As such unless the Tories open up a big lead, I suspect this will stay Liberal. Mark Holland may rub a lot on the right the wrong way, but he is reasonably popular in his riding. Now I would not be surprised if neighbouring Whitby flips to the Tories and likewise Pickering-Uxbridge is possible if they get some momentum as it includes the largely rural Uxbridge while this riding is entirely suburban.

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