Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:08

Constituency Profile


Chapman, Max

Delisle, Dave

Hughes, Carol

Marquis De Marmalade, Le

Williamson, Dave

Wilson, Heather


Carol Hughes

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



93436.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carol Hughes ** 1651639.90%
Heather Wilson 1411134.10%
André Robichaud 982023.70%
Calvin John Orok 9272.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 110.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (91.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (8.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Nickel Belt
   (0.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Mantha * 1710558.56%
Jib Turner 714324.45%
Charles Fox 23658.1%
Tommy Lee 13664.68%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4411.66%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal win here. Rematch from last time plus a weaker CPC candidate which may have taken votes away from the Liberals. I think the Liberals pull out the win here tomorrow.
19/10/19 NJam101
I'm going to change my prediction to Carol Hughes. The NDP campaign has come back to life and leader Jagmeet Singh did well in the debates in both English and French. The Liberal candidate Heather Wilson isn't bilingual and I feel that Hughes will do very well in the Northern areas. i can't see Wilson doing better this time and more voters will be comfortable voting NDP assuming it will be either a Liberal or Conservative minority government.
07/10/19 NJam101
I'm pretty sure that it will be very close this time but it seems as though more people will be voting Liberal in the Southern portions of the riding compared to 2015 and enough for Heather Wilson to win.
Carol Hughes is a strong campaigner and still has a chance because she her big advantage is being bilingual unlike Wilson which will help her in places such as Kapuskasing and Hearst. But the NDP is much lower in the polls across Canada which surely will have an impact here.
Probably a Liberal victory.
22/09/19 jeff316
Carol Hughes will buck the NDP collapse as she's worked this riding and its towns like crazy, visible in each and every one all the time. In an urban riding, this stuff doesn't matter but out here it is critical. It'll be tight, but she will likely hold.
16/09/19 R.O.
ndp still have an incumbent running here so perhaps it’s a riding they can hold onto but riding had a long liberal history before Carol Hughes first got elected . but being an incumbent from Northern Ontario has its advantages and that gives her somewhat of an edge at this point.
09/09/19 Craig N
I think this one could go back to the Liberals. They’ve pumped some significant coin in to places like, for example Espanola’s Domtair, so that they could develop “greener” processes and tailor production to paper consumables in replacement of disposable plastic. Likely saved that Mill for years to come and the locals know and talk about it. That’ll translate into votes.
When the riding originally flipped from Libs to NDP there was fatigue with the dominant party and the continuous rule of Chrétien and then Martin. That fatigue doesn’t exist here any more. Nor does SNC hype register much with the populace.
In spite of being predominantly white and working class, the Conservatives have never and still don’t stand a chance here. There’s a deep-set distrust here for the Tory’s and they’re seen a supporting “big shot cronies” with little care for the working folk.
Also with the NDP doing so poorly in the polls, I can see the North rallying around the Red wave they missed out in 2015. Fashion trickles up here a little more slowly.
21/08/20 A.S.
I wouldn't jump to conclusions about "consensus"--give seasaw Voltairean credit for consistency, he predicted Lib for Nickel Belt as well; and in fact, I'd offer that *both* NB *and* AMK are competitive for *both* Lib *and* NDP (and in AMK's case, maybe even with some sleeper allowance for the Cons--hey, they did sweep a lot of the polls in the SW). Though the NDP *has* made its mark with excellent representation both provincially and federally, which factored into Hughes' '15 survival; and on such grounds it feels a little too brashly opportunistic to upfront declare the seat to be Liberal "unfinished business", even if Jagmeet doubts and the Pearson legacy might buoy Lib hopes. If it looks to be low-hanging Liberal fruit, it's only generically so. And, come now; virtually everyone who would have voted for Mike Pearson will be on the far side of 75 come E-Day.
30/06/19 Sam
You can't take one narrative and assume it applies to every seat in the country - Seasaw's prediction of loads of NDP seats outside of Quebec going Liberal is rather misguided and here is one of the least likely to change hands. Just because Carol Hughes is less prominent doesn't mean she's not popular here - with a rural and remote riding like this, her name means a lot, and it will do especially with the Liberals not doing particularly well here either. Besides, if we've reached the consensus that Nickel Belt with a Liberal incumbent and with some spill from Sudbury is competitive for the NDP, then it would make little sense for this to be a Liberal gain. I stand by my projection.
21/06/19 seasaw
The last time this riding very close, primarily due to Trudeaumania II, but this time NDP is polling at a 20 year low and the Conservatives aren't strong here. That should be enough for a Liberal victory.
29/05/19 Craig
On paper, this should be a solid Conservative target - largely rural, mostly working-class. However, Northern Ontario tends to play its own game. Carol Hughes is quite popular and should win again even if Jagmeet Singh is a major liability. The large indigenous community here will play to her hands too - Michael Mantha's 2018 vote may be a closer estimate.
The Liberal vote will likely collapse due to the Trudeau record and SNC-Lavalin. The Conservatives might find fertile ground along the Highway 17 corridor on some issues like immigration and gun rights, but will likely get nowhere once you move into the interior of the riding based on their free-market economic policies and weaker positions with the indigenous community. All things considered, it should be an easy NDP hold and Hughes may top 50% for the first time.
02/03/19 Sam
Northern Ontario is definitely a more fertile area for the NDP where they could be gaining seats like the neighbouring Nickel Belt, where they unexpectedly lost last time. The fact they held on in ancestrally Liberal Algoma suggests that this riding is far less vulnerable than on paper, and if the polls are correct, this will translate into an NDP win.

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