Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:14

Constituency Profile


Brassard, John

North, Bonnie

Reinio, Pekka

Robinson, Stephanie

Wilson, Lisa-Marie


John Brassard

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



331.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Brassard 2290146.40%
Colin Wilson 1830837.10%
Myrna Clark 581211.80%
Bonnie North 19914.00%
Gary Nail 1990.40%
Jeff Sakula 1300.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2580.63%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.56% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Andrea Khanjin 2212149.97%
Pekka Reinio 1266128.6%
Ann Hoggarth * 554312.52%
Bonnie North 31907.21%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2900.79%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Barrie ridings will be interesting to watch, I think the CPC keep this 1.
14/10/19 martin sarkissian
all you see is blue out here
07/10/19 R.O.
John Brassard isn’t a longtime or high profile mp but he should be able to hold this riding . its true the riding has grown as the Barrie area gets new developments , is many new homes planned for this riding in south Barrie but they won’t be built for several years.
08/08/20 A.S.
In the Patrick Brown days, the S part of Barrie was actually the more Con-leaning part--and the Innisfil-augmented dynamic carries on into the present riding. Remember, too, than Ann Hoggarth was the worst-performing incumbent Lib MPP in last year's provincial election--and her second place NDP opponent is now running federally, not that it'll mean a whole lot in the end, unless it does...
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
The previous Liberal prediction is perhaps a little naive -- to suggest that so many Liberals have recently moved to Barrie from Toronto that it will indeed tip the balance by the almost 10 point margin from last time is a little absurd. Even if it holds a kernel of truth, there are plenty of people who voted Liberal last time who won't do so again. Urban sprawl in this direction will definitely accrue the most benefit to the Liberals over time, but to think it will have been accomplished in the past four years is simply wishful thinking. This is an easy Tory hold.
06/03/19 MF
The Conservatives won this by nearly 10 points during the red wave of 2015 - I don't see this changing hands now.
26/02/19 Steve
In the last election John received 46% to Colin's 37%. With more and more people moving up to the Innisfil area from Toronto, and Brampton I predict that this race will be close. The Liberals to win would need a great local candidate who has ties to Innisfil. South Barrie tends to vote more Liberal than Conservative, and rural Innisfil always votes Conservative. The other factor that might affect the Conservative vote is the People's Party. While I'm sure that they might receive about 4-5% of the vote, this could sway the riding to the Liberals.
25/02/19 Sam
This riding still went Conservative by a significant margin despite a large amount of Liberal support in Barrie. The Conservatives won this by an even larger margin provincially, and although there are other ridings like Milton that the Liberals appear to have an early shot at unseating Conservative MPs, it's hard to see John Brassard, who has risen through the ranks losing.

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