Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:20

Constituency Profile


Janssen, Dan

Kalliecharan, Brian

Lancaster, Marty

Patterson, David

Shipley, Doug


Alex Nuttall

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



966.10 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alex Nuttall 2109141.70%
Brian Tamblyn 2100541.60%
Ellen White 520210.30%
Marty Lancaster 26485.20%
Darren Roskam 4010.80%
Ram Faerber 1880.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10822.41%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Simcoe North
   (12.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doug Downey 2044544.75%
Dan Janssen 1289128.21%
Jeff Kerk 621013.59%
Keenan Aylwin 535411.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1880.49%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals came close here in 2015, here in 2019 with no incumbent again I think they take the seat.
19/10/19 R.O.
There is an updated mainstreet poll for this riding which shows a closer race between Doug Shipley and Brian Kallieeharn than original poll did. However I think the riding will stay conservative from what I’ve seen. The rural part of the riding is solidly blue in terms of signs this year. the urban part of barrie is an odd mix of cpc , green , liberal and ndp signs. Elizabeth May never visited this riding but it appeared green candidate Marty Lancaster was running a strong campaign when compared to other green candidates in Ontario. the 2015 liberal candidate Brian Tamblyn was well known and well liked in the riding , ran a strong campaign but still came up short during an election when liberal numbers soared. The ndp candidate from 2018 provincial election Dan Janssen also returned to run federally , he won’t do as well as 2018 when he came close to 30% but could still be a factor. Trudeau also visited Barrie again, my sense is the liberals have regrets they didn’t bring him in 2015 when the liberals surged and barely lost this riding. A visit back then might of swung the 100 votes they needed. Except its now 2019 , it’s a new political reality out there , I don’t think his visit changes things here.
18/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Research poll says today that Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte is too close to call:
13/10/19 The Jackal
Having gone through this riding recently I saw a dozen Shipley signs one Green sign and no NDP or Liberal signs If this is any indication of voter intentions it looks like a Conservative lock
10/10/19 Mizisuga
Compared to Milton, this Barrie riding does not show any sign of going Liberal. Conservatives have a comfortable lead in the polls, the LPC have no ‘star’ candidate, and urban growth is not as heavy.
07/10/19 Jeff
The Liberal campaign has legs now and is out canvassing on a daily basis. They have a competent campaign manager with lots of experience. The PC machine is humming along, but candidate seems to be focusing on the Green candidate. Rumors on Twitter indicate Shipley’s “business” isn’t actually in Barrie- unable to confirm or substantiate. Green candidate had his own “blackface” incident and again rumour is he has more apologizing to do. The NDP have all but checked out with the candidate juggling the stress of parenthood, work and FT campaigning- this off the heels of the 2018 election where his party was hot. Mainstreet has the PC in the lead- I suspect this was intentional. The PPC candidate is the most active on SM- too bad that isn’t enough. Liberals will squeak by with 5 votes.
25/09/19 R.O.
There was a mainstreet poll for this riding just released it has the conservative candidate well ahead, there 2 polls said the race was closer in Simcoe North not this riding despite it being so close in 2015. The liberals have a new candidate here and don’t seem to have the same traction locally there 2015 candidate did. The cpc are running a well known city councilor from Barrie this election.
Tories with healthy lead in Barrie riding; but in close race in neighbouring district: Mainstreet polls
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 24, 2019 6:26am
08/08/20 A.S.
I agree that 2015's Liberal-near-upset scare *should* carry the mark of a one-time phenomenon (all the more so in how it could have been a victory had more people taken seriously the notion of BSOM being competitive)--but there's an awful lot pushing against that back-to-status-quo "inevitability": Nuttall's premature retirement; last year's sluggish-if-victorious winning PC result; and of course the fact that unlike in 2015, Patrick Brown is no longer provincial leader or even a local factor. Yet here, again, a provincial NDP second-placer is trying his luck federally; and also, BSOM was one of four Green 10-percenters in that same election. So, splitting could still be the Libs' enemy relative to hopes for consolidating on 2015's result.
03/08/20 Examining Barrie
Heard a rumour that councillor Morales is considering a run as an independent now that the Conservative poll numbers are tanking. If this is true, then BSOM is leaning Liberal for sure. Given how close the last election was, Sergio's personal popularity and even a slight draw from PPC would make this impossible for a Conservative hold.
15/04/19 Kumar Patel
It's hard to see this riding go Liberal this year unless the Mayor of Barrie Jeff Lehman decides to run.
06/04/19 Craig
Both the LPC and CPC will be fighting hard here and with Alex Nuttall not running, the candidate selection - along with the national campaigns - will be key. For now, I'd probably give the Conservatives a slight advantage, but it is definitely too close to call overall.
Barrie has largely become a bellwether with many GTA commuters, while the rural areas are mostly conservative. However, 3/4 of the riding is in urban Barrie which makes this seat marginal at the best of times. Nuttall was able to run up the numbers outside Barrie to inch over the line despite losing most urban polls (social conservative views might have done that?) but there's no guarantee that will be repeated. Stay tuned.
04/04/19 Sam
In keeping with my prediction in Simcoe North, I will retract my call for the Conservatives; I still think they will win and may reverse this nearer the time, but I think too early to call is the correct prediction now.
26/03/19 Branden M
This riding was the closest of Ontario in 2015, and with the news that Nuttall isn’t running again, this race has the possibility of being very close again. Definitely TCTC unless there’s a massive downturn in Liberal fortunes.
08/03/19 Sam
The more competitive riding in Barrie, but not necessarily vulnerable; the Liberals are not performing well in exurban/rural Ontario and although this has gone Liberal at the provincial level there just isn't much evidence of Liberal gains here.

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