Janssen, Dan
	Kalliecharan, Brian
	Lancaster, Marty
	Patterson, David
	Shipley, Doug
Incumbent:
	Alex Nuttall

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			100788 97876 41490 39270 966.10 km² 104.3/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Alex Nuttall	21091	41.70%
	Brian Tamblyn	21005	41.60%
	Ellen White	5202	10.30%
	Marty Lancaster	2648	5.20%
	Darren Roskam	401	0.80%
	Ram Faerber	188	0.40%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		24477	54.55%
		8983	20.02%
		7601	16.94%
		2734	6.09%
Other		1082	2.41%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Barrie    (68.66% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Simcoe-Grey    (18.62% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Simcoe North    (12.72% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Doug Downey	20445	44.75%
	Dan Janssen	12891	28.21%
	Jeff Kerk	6210	13.59%
	Keenan Aylwin	5354	11.72%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		15093	39.26%
		14803	38.51%
		5755	14.97%
		2601	6.77%
Other		188	0.49%

	20/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Liberals came close here in 2015, here in 2019 with no incumbent again I think they take the seat.
	19/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
There is an updated mainstreet poll for this riding which shows a closer race between Doug Shipley and Brian Kallieeharn than original poll did. However I think the riding will stay conservative from what I’ve seen. The rural part of the riding is solidly blue in terms of signs this year. the urban part of barrie is an odd mix of cpc , green , liberal and ndp signs. Elizabeth May never visited this riding but it appeared green candidate Marty Lancaster was running a strong campaign when compared to other green candidates in Ontario. the 2015 liberal candidate Brian Tamblyn was well known and well liked in the riding , ran a strong campaign but still came up short during an election when liberal numbers soared. The ndp candidate from 2018 provincial election Dan Janssen also returned to run federally , he won’t do as well as 2018 when he came close to 30% but could still be a factor. Trudeau also visited Barrie again, my sense is the liberals have regrets they didn’t bring him in 2015 when the liberals surged and barely lost this riding. A visit back then might of swung the 100 votes they needed. Except its now 2019 , it’s a new political reality out there , I don’t think his visit changes things here.
	18/10/19	Marco Ricci 174.115.35.186
Mainstreet Research poll says today that Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte is too close to call: https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/18/pair-of-incumbent-less-election-races-too-close-to-call-mainstreet-polls-show/
	13/10/19	The Jackal 209.91.148.181
Having gone through this riding recently I saw a dozen Shipley signs one Green sign and no NDP or Liberal signs If this is any indication of voter intentions it looks like a Conservative lock
	10/10/19	Mizisuga 67.21.155.29
Compared to Milton, this Barrie riding does not show any sign of going Liberal. Conservatives have a comfortable lead in the polls, the LPC have no ‘star’ candidate, and urban growth is not as heavy.
	07/10/19	Jeff 67.69.69.170
The Liberal campaign has legs now and is out canvassing on a daily basis. They have a competent campaign manager with lots of experience. The PC machine is humming along, but candidate seems to be focusing on the Green candidate. Rumors on Twitter indicate Shipley’s “business” isn’t actually in Barrie- unable to confirm or substantiate. Green candidate had his own “blackface” incident and again rumour is he has more apologizing to do. The NDP have all but checked out with the candidate juggling the stress of parenthood, work and FT campaigning- this off the heels of the 2018 election where his party was hot. Mainstreet has the PC in the lead- I suspect this was intentional. The PPC candidate is the most active on SM- too bad that isn’t enough. Liberals will squeak by with 5 votes.
	25/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
There was a mainstreet poll for this riding just released it has the conservative candidate well ahead, there 2 polls said the race was closer in Simcoe North not this riding despite it being so close in 2015. The liberals have a new candidate here and don’t seem to have the same traction locally there 2015 candidate did. The cpc are running a well known city councilor from Barrie this election. Tories with healthy lead in Barrie riding; but in close race in neighbouring district: Mainstreet polls By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 24, 2019 6:26am https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/24/tories-with-healthy-lead-in-barrie-riding-but-in-close-race-in-neighbouring-district-mainstreet-polls/
	08/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
I agree that 2015's Liberal-near-upset scare *should* carry the mark of a one-time phenomenon (all the more so in how it could have been a victory had more people taken seriously the notion of BSOM being competitive)--but there's an awful lot pushing against that back-to-status-quo "inevitability": Nuttall's premature retirement; last year's sluggish-if-victorious winning PC result; and of course the fact that unlike in 2015, Patrick Brown is no longer provincial leader or even a local factor. Yet here, again, a provincial NDP second-placer is trying his luck federally; and also, BSOM was one of four Green 10-percenters in that same election. So, splitting could still be the Libs' enemy relative to hopes for consolidating on 2015's result.
	03/08/20	Examining Barrie 162.253.131.188
Heard a rumour that councillor Morales is considering a run as an independent now that the Conservative poll numbers are tanking. If this is true, then BSOM is leaning Liberal for sure. Given how close the last election was, Sergio's personal popularity and even a slight draw from PPC would make this impossible for a Conservative hold.
	15/04/19	Kumar Patel 99.254.33.154
It's hard to see this riding go Liberal this year unless the Mayor of Barrie Jeff Lehman decides to run.
	06/04/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
Both the LPC and CPC will be fighting hard here and with Alex Nuttall not running, the candidate selection - along with the national campaigns - will be key. For now, I'd probably give the Conservatives a slight advantage, but it is definitely too close to call overall. Barrie has largely become a bellwether with many GTA commuters, while the rural areas are mostly conservative. However, 3/4 of the riding is in urban Barrie which makes this seat marginal at the best of times. Nuttall was able to run up the numbers outside Barrie to inch over the line despite losing most urban polls (social conservative views might have done that?) but there's no guarantee that will be repeated. Stay tuned.
	04/04/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
In keeping with my prediction in Simcoe North, I will retract my call for the Conservatives; I still think they will win and may reverse this nearer the time, but I think too early to call is the correct prediction now.
	26/03/19	Branden M 142.232.160.87
This riding was the closest of Ontario in 2015, and with the news that Nuttall isn’t running again, this race has the possibility of being very close again. Definitely TCTC unless there’s a massive downturn in Liberal fortunes.
	08/03/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
The more competitive riding in Barrie, but not necessarily vulnerable; the Liberals are not performing well in exurban/rural Ontario and although this has gone Liberal at the provincial level there just isn't much evidence of Liberal gains here.