Election Prediction Project

Bay of Quinte
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:26

Constituency Profile


Bell, Stephanie

Bordonaro, Paul

Celovsky, Danny

Durkin, Tim

Ellis, Neil


Neil Ellis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1621.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Neil Ellis 2928150.70%
Jodie Jenkins 1978134.30%
Terry Cassidy 700112.10%
Rachel Nelems 12782.20%
Trueman Tuck 3720.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2650.53%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Prince Edward-Hastings
   (60.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (39.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Todd Smith * 2422448.02%
Joanne Belanger 1606331.84%
Robert Quaiff 751114.89%
Mark Daye 17303.43%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3540.82%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
I thought the riding was going to be closer in 2015 than it was. Here in 2019 former Belleville mayor, neil Ellis, has 1 term as MP under his belt and that will help him get re-elected here.
14/10/19 R.O.
The liberals won this riding easily in 2015, which was the first year it existed under current boundaries. But it had been created from parts of several ridings that voted conservative in the past and elected pc mpp Todd Smith provincially by a large margin. It would seem to be a race between liberal mp Neil Ellis and cpc candidate Tim Durkin. The ndp and greens weren’t much of a factor here last election but one has to wonder if they improve this year ?
14/08/20 A.S.
You can be sure that the Cons would covet the CFB Trenton riding, though the symbolic import thereof is neutralized when they're not in power. And with SNC-Lavalin fading from the spotlight, BoQ is looking less obviously vulnerable--there's always been a "Loyalist Liberal" base, but it also helps that it's a mostly urban riding, and much of which *isn't* urban is "culturally urbanizing" (i.e. the long-term gentrification of PEC). Though oddly enough, the candidate most reflective of PEC's gentrification happens to be PPC's (former Toronto repertory mogul Paul Bordonaro)
28/05/19 GSG
I agree that this is a bellweather riding. Given that the polls have shifted significantly in the past 4 months, the chances that Neil Ellis win be re-elected fall more on his personal apppeal than his leaders personal appeal. If Neil loses this riding, we will be looking at a Conservtive gov't (Minority or Majority)
Bay of Quinte will join Peterborough as a bellweather this time around.
I find it interesting that an MP of the stature of a former mayor in Neil Ellis is now buying up advertising on the backs of buses on the eve of an election. Might be a sign that he no longer sees his re-election as a sure thing, which it was before the Liberals started unraveling like a cheap sweater in February.
If we are headed for a Tory government, Tim Durkin will be going to Ottawa. But if the Liberals' fortunes turn, look for Neil Ellis to qualify for a federal pension with his re-election.
01/04/19 Craig
Too close to call. Redistribution after 2012 put the least Conservative-friendly parts of several ridings together to create this more urban riding, which was an easy win for the Liberals in 2015. Neil Ellis is also quite popular here, which helps them too, as Belleville tends to be a bellwether city and Trenton is normally conservative but can sometimes swing.
That said, this did go to the Conservatives by a decent (but not overwhelming) result in 2011 and provincially in 2018. If this riding is kept for a long time, could it be a classic bellwether? Belleville is pretty similar to Peterborough in terms of demographics. We'll see.
27/03/19 Sam
I agree that this could go red, and Neil Ellis is a reason for that, but I also believe that the fundamentals have this down as an area which the Conservatives will be targeting. Personal vote can be affected by momentum and the Liberals don't have the same momentum as last time. The Liberals have also shown indicative weakness provincially.
05/03/19 GSG
I agree that Neil is popular. But it is way too early to call this riding given the recent turmoil in Ottawa. Neil was working with and admired JWR when she had the Veterans Ministry. Neil yes, but he was elected on a Liberal ticket of openness and transparency.. and we have got the polar opposite.
05/03/19 Neal
In normal times due to who the Liberal MP is, i would to my great pain and regret have to concede this, the riding in which i live, to Neil Ellis and the Liberals.
However these are not normal times. BoQ is a swing riding, and with the current Liberal woes, there is a possibility that the riding may switch to the Conservatives.
Again, very sadly, I would still give the Liberals the edge, based solely on Neil Ellis, the edge, but i would not CALL this one just yet.
Neil Ellis may have been a former mayor, but he cannot be described as 'wildly popular'. he has his share of detractors too.
And this time, even some who gave him a chance based on his tenure as Mayor may not do so this time.
This riding will be one of those decided by 2-4% either way.
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
Liberal hold. Neil Ellis was a popular two term mayor of Belville. In 2015, the Liberals won this seat by more than 15 points. They had a stronger performance here than they did in Peterborough Kwartha or Northumberland Peterborough South.

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