Election Prediction Project

Beaches-East York
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-25 20:59:16

Constituency Profile


Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel


Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.64 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith 2745849.40%
Matthew Kellway ** 1711330.80%
Bill Burrows 912416.40%
Randall Sach 14332.60%
James Sears 2540.50%
Roger Carter 1050.20%
Peter Surjanac 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1300.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Beaches-East York
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rima Berns-Mcgown 2406448.21%
Arthur Potts * 1348027.01%
Sarah Mallo 920218.44%
Debra Scott 21284.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.59%

12/03/19 Stevo
This is now a Nathaniel Erskine-Smith riding. He could probably run as an independent and still be competitive. His committment to issues like animal welfare - rare in a Liberal party as in bed with the hunting/trapping lobby as the Conservatives - wins him many fans from all parties. With any other generic wallpaper Liberal this seat would otherwise be competitive for the NDP.
01/03/19 Sam
This riding is not as safe as the more ancestrally Liberal ridings, and went NDP in 2011, but the Liberals are not doing as badly. The NDP are the main challengers and they will be focusing more heavily on Davenport, Parkdale and Danforth. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is perhaps the biggest rebel Liberal, although the extent to which that helps him is unclear. It won't hinder him however, and he should hold enough to win again.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
I am also of the opinion that the NDP will be focusing on other Toronto ridings this year, and Beaches-East York will stay in the Liberal column. Nathaniel E-S fits this riding well and will probably get a boost given that he is willing to buck the party trend. Liberal hold.
27/02/19 Kumar Patel
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is a left-leaning independent minded Liberal who shouldn't have too much trouble holding on to this riding. The resource strapped NDP will probably target other downtown ridings such as Toronto Danforth and Davenport.
24/02/19 seasaw
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith may not be a household name, he may not be in Trudeau's inner circle, but he is a strong constituency advocate, and was one of two Liberals to vote with opposition to bring public inquiry in the SNC-LAVELIN affair, that along with the fact that the Liberals have won this seat in 7 of the last 8 elections should be enough for a Liberal victory

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