|This riding has been swinging with the breeze in the last few elections. The breeze is expected to be against the liberals, but in stuffy old Toronto might they hang on, with a strong incumbent? If the libs can't hang on, I'm not convinced that means NDP pick up, not after the Green win in the BC by-election. After floods recently and who knows what else this summer, will so-called progressives in the Beach take a stand against climate change, finally? No matter what, it's way too early to see where this one is going. Except to say it's not going conservative (the Greens are red Tories anyway, so maybe they would siphon from both sides of the aisle).|
|This area is progressive and will likely not support the Conservatives. |
Due to Erskine-Smith's incumbent status as well as support for a public inquiry of the SNC Lavalin affair, he is considered a trusted for the people MP.
|This is the type of riding where people pay close attention to their representatives and Erskine-Smith has had no problem voting against the Liberals when he needs to. It will help him keep the more pragmatic voters and LPC/NDP switchers on his side. I think the NDP will give a good fight but he'll still win comfortably.|
|Nathan Erskine-Scott, unlike many other Liberals, has made a name for himself and he is definitely on the left of the party. The fact he is going against the grain on the SNC-Lavalin scandal should help get him many NDP voters, and that should easily return him to Parliament. If he decided to leave the party, he would probably win as an independent or NDP candidate. I wonder if Singh is trying to recruit him?|
The only way I can see the NDP picking this up is if they can actually overtake the Liberals in the polls and become the ABC voice, in which case the top progressive party will become favoured. The Conservatives are not just locally irrelevant here, they are despised. With immigration now on the national agenda for them, they will be lucky to get much above 10%.
|The NDP has a fairly strong riding association in the area, and won this seat handedly in the last provincial election, with the provincial Liberal vote collapsing. Sure, the SNC Lavalin scandal is damaging, but I can't see the Trudeau Liberals dropping to Wynne-like levels. The NDP will put on a good fight, but I expect Erskine-Smith to retain his seat|
|This is now a Nathaniel Erskine-Smith riding. He could probably run as an independent and still be competitive. His committment to issues like animal welfare - rare in a Liberal party as in bed with the hunting/trapping lobby as the Conservatives - wins him many fans from all parties. With any other generic wallpaper Liberal this seat would otherwise be competitive for the NDP.|
|This riding is not as safe as the more ancestrally Liberal ridings, and went NDP in 2011, but the Liberals are not doing as badly. The NDP are the main challengers and they will be focusing more heavily on Davenport, Parkdale and Danforth. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is perhaps the biggest rebel Liberal, although the extent to which that helps him is unclear. It won't hinder him however, and he should hold enough to win again.|
|I am also of the opinion that the NDP will be focusing on other Toronto ridings this year, and Beaches-East York will stay in the Liberal column. Nathaniel E-S fits this riding well and will probably get a boost given that he is willing to buck the party trend. Liberal hold.|
|Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is a left-leaning independent minded Liberal who shouldn't have too much trouble holding on to this riding. The resource strapped NDP will probably target other downtown ridings such as Toronto Danforth and Davenport.|
|Nathaniel Erskine-Smith may not be a household name, he may not be in Trudeau's inner circle, but he is a strong constituency advocate, and was one of two Liberals to vote with opposition to bring public inquiry in the SNC-LAVELIN affair, that along with the fact that the Liberals have won this seat in 7 of the last 8 elections should be enough for a Liberal victory|