Election Prediction Project

Beaches-East York
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:31

Constituency Profile


Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel

Manners, Sean

McKenzie, Deborah

Nam, Mae J.

Nazeer, Nadirah


Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.64 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith 2745849.40%
Matthew Kellway ** 1711330.80%
Bill Burrows 912416.40%
Randall Sach 14332.60%
James Sears 2540.50%
Roger Carter 1050.20%
Peter Surjanac 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1300.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Beaches-East York
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rima Berns-Mcgown 2406448.21%
Arthur Potts * 1348027.01%
Sarah Mallo 920218.44%
Debra Scott 21284.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.59%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Smith is pretty well known when it comes to Liberal backbenchers. I think he'll hold on here.
15/10/19 Chris N
With the NDP’s polling higher, it might be tempting to call this too close to call, but I expect the Liberals to hold this seat. I anticipate the NDP to be more competitive in Toronto Danforth, Davenport and Parkdale-High Park. Erskine-Smith has a strong constituency following, although his status as a “maverick” is a tad generous. As noted earlier, the Liberals have a very strong base in the riding. A mix of Bay Street and SUV driving upper-middle class professionals in the south half, young and urbane families in East Danforth, and first generation Italians and Greeks in the north end, make for an odd but sturdy coalition of reliable Liberal voters. Take note of the surprise provincial win for Arthur Potts in 2014 or council win for Liberal-backed Brad Bradford in 2018 to see the strength of their resources. Interestingly, a former Hill friend of posited that Beaches East York is the most popular location for Ottawa political transplants. A grouchy Chretien staffer-turned-conspiracy theorist and former Atlantic cabinet minister-turned-possible Scheer successor call this riding home.
11/10/19 franki429
I'm surprised both by the lack of recent activity here and that this is being called an easy Liberal win. Just last year the NDP defeated a first term Liberal incumbent in the provincial election by over 10000 votes. And Arthur Potts was relatively well regarded. I understand that the Wynne Liberals were even less popular than the Trudeau Liberals, but the NDP has a strong core here and a great candidate in Mae Nam. Response to her campaign in the riding seems to be good. And the incumbent, despite his attempts to be a ‘maverick’ still voted with his party on several items that progressive voters will have a real problem with. Might be close but I'm calling this NDP.
27/09/19 Riverdale resident
For a different B-EY view from ‘certain Liberal/Trudeau win’, this article from the Toronto Star is worth taking in. Nothing is certain.
22/09/19 jeff316
Erskine-Smith knew from day one that the only way he'd hang on to the riding was to break the Liberal mold enough to look like a maverick but not so much as to actually be one. And that's what voters out here want. Easy win.
16/09/19 R.O.
Whats stands out in my view is the lack of any ndp predictions in one of the more ndp friendly ridings in Toronto . it likely stay liberal if vote held today although lefty voters have proven to be volatile so could change by October .
15/09/19 Cas
This riding will vote for Nate Erskine-Smith again. He ran a very strong campaign in 2015 and probably will again. He has a very high profile both locally and in the media, has a decent constituency office and responds extremely well to inquiries and emails from constituents. His personal popularity will overcome any disillusionment with Trudeau.
14/09/19 MF
Once one of the strongest seats for the NDP in Toronto, Beaches-East York has fallen into the second tier as the Beaches has increasingly become North Toronto by the lake. The Liberals play well in both the professional class Beaches and the multicultural, working class East York part of the riding. The NDP would need an exceptional night to take the seat. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, a bit of a maverick in the Liberal caucus, will have no problem being re-elected.
04/08/20 A.S.
To join the chorus here. there's nothing in the present climate that suggests that Nathaniel Two-Names will relinquish his hold--all the more so given how his predecessor, Matthew Kellaway, lost a heartbreaker for Toronto Council last year, so the NDP can't depend on municipal backup anymore. Still, keep in mind that the NDP/CCF haven't been anything less than second here since 1953--but given that BEY is also Warren Kinsella's home riding, one *might* whimsically wonder what might have happened had he chosen to run for the Greens here. (And BEY *is* something of a Green-compatible riding, in a 'Mary Margaret McMahon moderate' way. But were Kinsella the candidate, I suspect the Kinsellaness would have detracted from the Greenness.)
14/06/19 Laurence Putnam
NDP have just nominated a fresh face in an impressive local labour lawyer, however that candidate has all of four and a half months to build her profile versus a relatively high profile incumbent; not to mention the overall weakness of the national NDP going into this campaign, I think it would be a really tough uphill battle to expect the NDP to win. Just as the Chretien Liberals won it consistently in the '90s, I would expect this year's weaker NDP will find themselves 15 points behind here on election night and will have to wait for a stronger national campaign before they can recapture a high density urban riding such as this.
01/06/19 RM
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is one of the few Liberals who has spoken out more independently of the party than others. I think this will help him counter the anti-trudeau trend among progressives. This is not a Tory seat. The NDP can win here, but not if the national vote is Liberal vs Tory. I was at a house party hosted by close friends in this riding last night and, while there was grumbling about Trudeau, everyone was prepared to back the Liberals here to make sure there was a Liberal MP and not a NDP spoiler. And NES' relative independence was a positive for him.
09/05/19 Julian
This riding has been swinging with the breeze in the last few elections. The breeze is expected to be against the liberals, but in stuffy old Toronto might they hang on, with a strong incumbent? If the libs can't hang on, I'm not convinced that means NDP pick up, not after the Green win in the BC by-election. After floods recently and who knows what else this summer, will so-called progressives in the Beach take a stand against climate change, finally? No matter what, it's way too early to see where this one is going. Except to say it's not going conservative (the Greens are red Tories anyway, so maybe they would siphon from both sides of the aisle).
20/04/19 YSAS
This area is progressive and will likely not support the Conservatives.
Due to Erskine-Smith's incumbent status as well as support for a public inquiry of the SNC Lavalin affair, he is considered a trusted ‘for the people’ MP.
06/04/19 Legolas
This is the type of riding where people pay close attention to their representatives and Erskine-Smith has had no problem voting against the Liberals when he needs to. It will help him keep the more pragmatic voters and LPC/NDP switchers on his side. I think the NDP will give a good fight but he'll still win comfortably.
06/04/19 Craig
Nathan Erskine-Scott, unlike many other Liberals, has made a name for himself and he is definitely on the left of the party. The fact he is going against the grain on the SNC-Lavalin scandal should help get him many NDP voters, and that should easily return him to Parliament. If he decided to leave the party, he would probably win as an independent or NDP candidate. I wonder if Singh is trying to recruit him?
The only way I can see the NDP picking this up is if they can actually overtake the Liberals in the polls and become the ABC voice, in which case the top progressive party will become favoured. The Conservatives are not just locally irrelevant here, they are despised. With immigration now on the national agenda for them, they will be lucky to get much above 10%.
01/04/19 Chris N
The NDP has a fairly strong riding association in the area, and won this seat handedly in the last provincial election, with the provincial Liberal vote collapsing. Sure, the SNC Lavalin scandal is damaging, but I can't see the Trudeau Liberals dropping to Wynne-like levels. The NDP will put on a good fight, but I expect Erskine-Smith to retain his seat
12/03/19 Stevo
This is now a Nathaniel Erskine-Smith riding. He could probably run as an independent and still be competitive. His committment to issues like animal welfare - rare in a Liberal party as in bed with the hunting/trapping lobby as the Conservatives - wins him many fans from all parties. With any other generic wallpaper Liberal this seat would otherwise be competitive for the NDP.
01/03/19 Sam
This riding is not as safe as the more ancestrally Liberal ridings, and went NDP in 2011, but the Liberals are not doing as badly. The NDP are the main challengers and they will be focusing more heavily on Davenport, Parkdale and Danforth. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is perhaps the biggest rebel Liberal, although the extent to which that helps him is unclear. It won't hinder him however, and he should hold enough to win again.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
I am also of the opinion that the NDP will be focusing on other Toronto ridings this year, and Beaches-East York will stay in the Liberal column. Nathaniel E-S fits this riding well and will probably get a boost given that he is willing to buck the party trend. Liberal hold.
27/02/19 Kumar Patel
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is a left-leaning independent minded Liberal who shouldn't have too much trouble holding on to this riding. The resource strapped NDP will probably target other downtown ridings such as Toronto Danforth and Davenport.
24/02/19 seasaw
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith may not be a household name, he may not be in Trudeau's inner circle, but he is a strong constituency advocate, and was one of two Liberals to vote with opposition to bring public inquiry in the SNC-LAVELIN affair, that along with the fact that the Liberals have won this seat in 7 of the last 8 elections should be enough for a Liberal victory

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