Election Prediction Project

Brampton Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:35

Constituency Profile


Bawa, Baljit

Boswell, Jordan

Gershuny, David

Gosal, Pawanjit

Sangha, Ramesh

Thornham, Pauline


Ramesh Sangha

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



43.70 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ramesh Sangha 1927748.60%
Bal Gosal ** 1334533.70%
Rosemary Keenan 599315.10%
Saul Marquard T. Bottcher 8442.10%
Frank Chilelli 1730.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2050.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (49.07% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (44.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (5.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sara Singh 1289238.37%
Harjit Jaswal 1280338.11%
Safdar Hussain 582517.34%
Laila Zarrabi Yan 10533.13%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2270.81%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold here, CPC held a seat in this area from 2011-2015 but lost the seat to the Liberals by 15% in 2015 with a cabinet minister as candidate. Can't see them making up the difference this time.
13/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically been a liberal/conservative race but one has to wonder about the ndp this year as Singh is from Brampton and this riding was narrowly won by the ndp in 2018 provincial election. Although I still see it as being a race between liberal incumbent Ramesh Sangha and cpc candidate Parmanjit Sidhu.
22/09/19 Kg
This seat will very likely go conservative, if the CPC form government
27/08/19 Kumar Patel
Liberal hold. I won't be surprised if the Conservatives run third in this riding as they did provincially in 2014.
1. The Conservatives are not polling well enough in Ontario to pick up seats in Brampton. Peel Region is tilting more progressive, while neighbouring York Region is trending more conservative.
2. Jagmeet Singh's NDP could (and should) perform better here than 2015, but in the current political climate it won't be enough to pick up this seat.
3. The Federal Liberals are very well organized in Peel Region, especially with Navdeep Bains as campaign co-chair.
06/08/20 A.S.
Given how some polls are showing Ontario to be something like the only place in the country where the NDP is actually gaining ground over 2015, I agree that the "Jagmeet effect" is to be monitored here--after all, he represented half of it provincially. Though "gaining ground" doesn't necessarily mean *competitively* so, given how we're talking a 15% distant third in '15--then again, who knows; or like Jagmeet's maiden federal run, the resulting 3-way could mean a CPC pickup and yet more frustration for the if-only-the-left-can-unite crowd. Interesting note to point out: provincially last year, the "formerly Jagmeet" part went narrowly PC, and the "formerly not Jagmeet" part went narrowly NDP.
16/06/19 Craig
Another very interesting Brampton riding, which all three parties could win in. The provincial election was a squeaker but it showed that the NDP can win without Jagmeet Singh and their gains among South Asians are real. His leadership will be felt here, even if they are polling lousy overall right now.
I'd say the Conservative ceiling is in the high 30s. With some vote splitting, that could easily be attainable, but the days of them winning Brampton seats without help are over. The Liberals have incumbency, but little else going for them. That should narrow their vote total considerably, but will it go blue or orange? Too close to call in a possible 3-way race.
06/06/19 seasaw
I agree with Sam that the Liberals have an edge here, however, it would only take a 3,000 vote swing to flip this riding over to the CPC, and that is possible
08/03/19 Sam
The Liberals have an edge here like the other Brampton ridings but again, the Conservatives can win this in a majority situation or if they nominate a top-tier candidate.

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