|Simply on symbolic-import grounds of its actually having been Jagmeet Singh's former provincial redoubt, to claim that this'll neither be a priority nor a top target for the NDP seems like pushing things...at this point. Or at least, I'd allow a bit more grace time before the party truly abandons hope on behalf of saving the furniture (much as in 2015); and of course, when it comes to the final tally, it's worth monitoring what kind of difference it makes locally when Jagmeet is the local MPP vs when he's the federal leader from across the country--a sort of micro vs macro barometer.|
|So it turns out Shawn Emran was pretending to be the Liberal candidate, and they've actually chosen Maninder Sidhu. The Liberals can play it safe here now. It's important to note that the NDP support here isn't correlated with Jagmeet Singh, it depends on Jagmeet Singh. In polarised politics, even his brother performed significantly worse (he had some controversy, but Jagmeet worked hard to get him elected and their relationship was well documented.) Without Jagmeet Singh, a nationalised, safe Liberal campaign should secure them the seat - the challenge for the other parties is substantial and I doubt this riding is a priority or a top target for any of them.|
|Very difficult riding to call and this may be a 3-way race in the making. If Jagmeet Singh was running here, I'd give the NDP a strong advantage as he is very popular, while the provincial results showed that he had coattails in Brampton. His party is doing horrible in the national and Ontario polls though.|
The Liberals won't have incumbency either, while they will have the national campaign weighing down on them even if they are natural favourites here. The Conservatives have been weakening here in recent elections, a trend seen across Canada with South Asian populations. However, they aren't out of it if they can get significant vote-splitting. Too close to call in a likely 3-way race.
|This is one that we have to wait till closer to election to predict. Mr Singh did represent a part of this riding provincially and is still quite popular. Mr Trudeau isn't as popular as he was in 2015, and is even disliked by some, he does have enough strength to pull this riding. Mr Scheer may not be personally popular, but some of his policies does resonate with people here and he has a good candidate. So, while the Liberals are in the drivers seat, all three parties have a shot, the one with the best campaign will win here|
|Aside from all the other problems the Grits have had, the person who appears to be new candidate seems to be a complete nutcase. The NDP have an opening here, although naturally with Singh not running, a victory for them is less certain. The Conservatives came notionally third in 2011, so it would take a lot for them to take this, so it's a battle largely between the Liberals and the NDP, and whilst the Liberals have a slight edge I wouldn't rule anything out.|
|Were Jagmeet Singh to run here personally, I think he'd have won it, but without his name attached to it I don't see an NDP win in the cards in Brampton. I'm not reading into the provincial success too much...it would be no different than saying well Doug Ford won Etobicoke North, therefore... |
Pity for the NDP because the Liberals certainly did everything they could to screw this riding up with their shady incumbent and virtually hand it to Jagmeet, but nobody could have foreseen those events unfolding.
|With Raj Grewal gone and the strength of the NDP in this area this should be an easy pick-up for Jagmeet's team. I think it's only leaning NDP for now, as I want to see who the Liberals and NDP nominate.|
|This will be interesting to watch. The incumbent MP was removed from the Liberal caucus. This is also the homebase of the NDP leader. Toss up between the LPC and NDP. The CPC have no chance in this riding unless Scheermania takes over the country with a 200-seat landslide.|