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Brantford-Brant
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:55
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Bory, Leslie

Gallagher, Jeffrey

Jonkman, Bob

McColeman, Phil

Sawyer, Sabrina

Takacs, Danielle

Turmel, John The Engineer

Wrobel, Dave


Incumbent:

Phil McColeman

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

130296
132443

53063
51204

828.81 km²
157.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Phil McColeman ** 2587440.90%
Danielle Takacs 1942230.70%
Marc Laferriere 1571524.80%
Kevin Brandt 15822.50%
Rob Ferguson 5150.80%
The Engineer Turmel 1640.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2666748.41%
1594728.95%
1041018.90%
17663.21%
Other 2950.54%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Brant
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Will Bouma 2443742%
Alex Felsky 2380240.91%
Ruby Toor 55539.54%
Ken Burns 27414.71%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1889937.86%
1474629.54%
1367727.40%
20074.02%
Other 5891.18%


21/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
I think Mccoleman will hold on here despite the latest poll showing a tie here. The NDP were close here last time and in the provincial election. I think all that considered will lead to a divided vote on the left.
21/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
I think Mccoleman will hold on here despite the latest poll showing a tie here. The NDP were close here last time and in the provincial election. I think all that considered will lead to a divided vote on the left.
17/10/19 Manny Toba
12.10.199.101
Liberals, Conservatives in statistical tie in Brantford-Brant, suggests new Mainstreet poll.
16/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Phil McColeman has been mp of this riding since 2008, before that it had been liberal and actually a longtime ndp riding in the 70’s and 80’s. its actually not that rural , mostly includes the city of Brantford and the Six Nations area. a lot of the rural polls became part of Oxford riding in last redistribution. Ndp have a new candidate this year and liberal from 2015 has returned. No party leaders appear to have been to the riding , suspect it will likely stay cpc as mp has held the riding for some time. The provincial riding also went pc in 2018 which was perhaps a surprise as ndp did well in the Hamilton region that year.
18/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Here, in 2015, was the archetypal split-opposition circumstance: a strong NDP candidate/weak federal campaign vs a weak Liberal candidate/strong federal campaign, in mutual self-cancellation. We've seen that before--think of all the disastrous 'strategic' ONDP endorsements vs Mike Harris in 1999; and as in that election, the resulting confusion might even have *boosted* the safe-and-sure Conservative vote. Indeed, Brantford's been a place of especial post-Laytonian NDP-supertargeted heartbreak lately--Alex Felsky came ohsoclose provincially in '18 and earned the party's highest losing share in the process. And who knows what now under either Jagmeet or Justin; but I *really* feel impelled to withhold judgment, because there's something just a touch illusory about McColeman's 'inevitability', or that of rust-belt/blue-collar conservativism in general. It's a 'subtractable' mandate; just that nobody's figured out the right subtraction formula yet. (Though provincially in 2014, a lot of surprise-victor Liberals--and the NDP in Oshawa--*did* figure it out. So, never say never.)
16/03/19 Sam
86.156.206.227
Even with the split left, the Conservatives are doing well enough in the region that they should hold this. Phil McColeman has been a strong MP for the area and should increase his vote share.
26/02/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
This used to be an NDP riding, then became Liberal and now it's Tory. Phil McColeman is a popular incumbent and that should be enough for a CPC victory



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