Election Prediction Project

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:13

Constituency Profile


Den Tandt, Michael

Little, Daniel

Ruff, Alex

Stephen, Chris

Townsend, Bill

Valiquette, Danielle


Larry Miller

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6114.05 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Miller ** 2629746.70%
Kimberley Love 2187938.80%
David McLaren 627011.10%
Chris Albinati 18873.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Bill Walker * 2687454.7%
Karen Gventer 1183724.09%
Francesca Dobbyn 604112.3%
Don B. Marshall 29275.96%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3880.91%

21/10/19 Bystander
Something seems off this time around. The usual abundance of Conservative signage is missing and there is a many more liberal signs in rural areas. Strange but I’m wondering if MDT might not break through?
20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A Liberal area during the Chretien yrs. but a CPC 1 since 2004. Incumbent Larry Miller isn't running again but that won't change the party that holds this seat. CPC hold.
26/09/19 Ruralite
I think what would otherwise be a CPC cakewalk could be made interesting by two factors. First, there's no incumbent, so one would think that would soften Conservative support slightly. The other is the hard-right social conservatives in this riding, of which there are many. If the PPC can siphon off some of that vote, it may help the Liberals make this race interesting, but it will still take a gargantuan effort to steal this seat.
16/09/19 R.O.
Larry Miller has retired so an open riding but more than likely a conservative hold as they held 2 other similar open rural ridings in recent by elections, progressive parties sometimes do well in Owen Sound but riding includes a lot of rural areas .
18/08/20 A.S.
Den Tandt + an open seat *looks* promising; but more in the event that Scheer's the Hudak '14 to Harper's Hudak '11. Or at least, BGOS requires a bit more of a 'expatriate Laurentian elite' element to make it work; and the riding's disposition t/w shoot-from-the-lip rogue Cons a la Larry Miller doesn't suggest it's ready for that yet--that is, unless someone like Bill Murdoch starts endorsing the PPC instead. (And in light of past local overachievements, I sort of tokenly wonder about the Greens in a national 10% environment.)
05/05/19 seasaw
This riding has elected Liberals in the past, but at the present time, it doesn't look like the Liberals are going to be making any gains in Ontario, as a matter of fact they might lose as many as half their seats in the province. There's a lot of time between now and election day, and even in the unlikely situation of them being in a position to make gains, there are at least 15 ridings that they can take before this one. CPC hold
16/03/19 Craig
Larry Miller or not, the Conservatives should be in good hands with any candidate locally. Den Tandt may be a star candidate in the national eyes, but he's way too close to Trudeau's inner circle to be of any value - that is going to be a significant liability compared to a 'generic' Liberal candidate (particularly with the SNC-Lavalin scandal). Unless the PPC can find a strong candidate and split the vote, this seat stays solidly Conservative.
06/03/19 Sam
Whilst Larry Miller retiring may have an effect on the Conservative vote, this rural riding is not likely to swing heavily Liberal; both the demographics and the 2015 result imply that it's Conservative enough that this won't happen.
28/02/19 Wally
Liberals to run Michael den Tandt, a well known local figure and former reporter, who will go against an unknown CPC candidate with Miller retiring. As the demographics os SW ON change with urban sprawl, look for the seat to flip in the near future, possibly this October.
24/02/19 Dana
With the incumbent Larry Miller retiring, a crowded CPC nomination race, and the Liberals being better organized than usual, this one is unpredictable until we see who the candidates are. Recent history favours CPC, but BGOS has gone both ways in the past.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Despite Larry Miller not running again, this is a solidly Tory riding that they only lose when the right is split so as long as the PPC remains in single digits, I expect them to hold this one.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster