Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:28

Constituency Profile


Balagtas, John

Coulbeck, Paul

Epp, Dave

Omstead, Katie

Vercouteren, Mark

Walsh, Tony


Dave Van Kesteren

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2046.28 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dave Van Kesteren ** 2167741.70%
Katie Omstead 1935137.20%
Tony Walsh 954918.40%
Mark Vercouteren 13942.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 40.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.81% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rick Nicholls * 2407851.92%
Jordan Mcgrail 1655835.71%
Margaret Schleier Stahl 37368.06%
Mark Vercouteren 16433.54%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5181.29%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
This has been a CPC riding since 2006. I think the Liberals will make things interesting here tomorrow but the CPC should still hold the riding.
15/10/19 Mark
This one was probably over as soon as the last election finished. Van Kesteren was very well liked and it's a surprise to see him not run for another term in what would have been a guaranteed cakewalk for him.
Truth is though, the Conservatives could run a pizza with a blue hat and still soundly defeat the Liberals in this riding. Even without all the Liberal/Trudeau scandals and missteps this is a very blue riding and will stay so. I'll be watching closely to see if the NDP can take a bite out of the Liberals though :)
27/09/19 R.O.
A mainstreet poll has the conservatives leading in this riding , left open by the retirement of longtime cpc mp Dave Van Kesten .
Tories in front in Chatham riding: Mainstreet poll By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 26, 2019 6:15am
16/08/20 A.S.
Stayed with them in their times of trouble? Prior to Y2K, this was primarily a *Liberal* riding, save landslide situations a la Mulroney '84. Of course, that's when everything was different in heartland far-SW Ontario, and the local Liberal machine's been ill-starred over the past generation or so--but still, that it's an open seat w/2015's Grit candidate re-offering (and *perhaps* more of a united-left situation if the Jagmeet NDP is truly more of a superfluous factor) must count for something. Then again, that the provincial riding defied NDP predictions on behalf of an easy PC majority must *also* count for something.
22/04/19 Sam
Even where it looks as if the Conservatives are vulnerable, this is a Conservative riding and has stayed with them in their times of trouble. Even with David van Kesteren gone, this is a fertile region for them and the Liberals should fall behind. A safer Conservative hold this time.
16/03/19 Craig
This is one of the most religious/evangelical ridings in Ontario, as well as a very working class one. With the Liberals' record the last 4 years and the big turn right among working class voters, the results from 2015 will almost certainly not be replicated and 2011 looks to be a better barometer (flipping the NDP and LPC results).
Unless Omstead runs away completely from the Liberal record including SNC-Lavalin and urban social issues, this should be a safe Conservative seat this time around (probably beating the 2018 provincial record), even with a new candidate for the blue team. The Trudeau record does not fit well here at all. The NDP has had good results recently (although they hit a brick wall in 2018) but they are polling too low to matter too much now.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
It has been said time and again that incumbents garner about 5 points for their party and not much more. The results from 2015 for Chatham-Kent-Leamington is well within that margin. With CPC incumbent Dave Van Kesteren not running and Liberal candidate Katie Omstead re-offering, shouldn't this be listed as TCTC. I do agree that the CPC have the edge given that it is rural SW Ontario and the Liberals have a record to contend with (and a current major scandal). However, Ms Omstead would have connections and a team from 2015. Not to mention that this riding is a bit more urban than some neighboring vacated seats. I think TCTC is a more accurate prediction at this point, at least until we see how this race starts to unfold in the months ahead.
25/02/19 Brian J
With Liberal support weaker than the last election, and the Conservatives putting forward a strong candidate in David Epp, this should be a hold for the Conservatives

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