|Julie Dzerowicz is a weak MP who slipped through with the Trudeau wave. People barely know who she is and she's accomplished nothing as an MP. Even Ana Bailao's people can't stand her. In contrast Andrew Cash is well liked in Davenport, even among Liberal voters. He has also been a long-time and respected advocate for artists and cultural workers, many of whom reside in Davenport. He is a fantastic canvasser and has been working hard in the constituency since December. With strategic voting likely to be a big factor, it's going to be a tough year for the NDP and it needs to choose its targets very carefully. I expect the party to throw its west end resources here, rather than in neighbouring Parkdale-High Park.|
|Somehow, the early chorus line of NDP submissions for Davenport struck me as jumping the gun, given Jagmeet's polling doldrums and given the stubborn, sinking sentiment among many of the urban left that stopping the Cons = uniting behind incumbent Liberals, even if it meant plugging one's nose while doing so. But undeniably, as it now stands, Davenport is the likeliest 416 pickup prospect for the NDP--Cash has a good deal to do with this, of course, as well as Dzerowicz being arguably the weakest link in the Libs' Toronto caucus plus the demographic changes that led Davenport to morph into by far the 'leftiest' ward in last year's mayoral race. So to point out that the NDP has 'only' won here in 2011 sells Davenport short--but still, the NDP has had a long history of supposed 'sure things' winding up not-so-sure. Which means, Andrew Cash might wind up being this year's answer to Olivia Chow in '97 and '04--but better (and more likely) that than Olivia Chow in '15. And had the NDP leadership race turned out differently, he practically already *is* the Olivia Chow to Charlie Angus's Jack Layton...|
|Sure, we had this as NDP, but things have changed and i agree with the projection change. The poll in Toronto was a surprise to a lot of us but it confirms once again the poor fortunes for the Dippers.|
|Based on the latest Forum Research poll numbers, NDP doesn't stand a chance here or anywhere in Toronto. The Liberals are at 46%, followed by the CPC at 26%, and NDP is at 12%. Now these numbers may change, and probably will, let's say the Liberals lose 10 points ( possible but not probable.), and let's assume NDP is the major beneficiary ( 6 points ), that would make it 36-30-18, still not enough to win here. By today's poll numbers, the Liberals will win 23 to 25 of Toronto's 25 seats, CPC 0-2 and NDP, forget about. Also, I've mentioned this 1,000 times and will mention it again a million|
times if I have to, never compare provincial election results to the federal one.
|Andrew Cash is the best candidate the NDP could have to try to retake what is absolutely a winnable seat. |
But I think we're back to the Liberal-Majority Chretien type days where things are going too well for lefties to bother with the moral outrage required to take a progressive stand and vote NDP, for the average urban Torontonian. Yes there's outrage against Doug Ford but Trudeau has cast Ford as a villain and likewise, so Ford has to Trudeau. These voters love that the Trudeau Liberals are standing up to Doug Ford.
Latest Toronto Star poll has the Liberals out front with 46% of voters in Toronto while the NDP trails with 12%. Hey -- a lot can still happen, but we have to face facts here: these seats only went NDP in the heady days of Layton & Mulcair, back when the leader of the NDP could say with a straight face that they were running for Prime Minister.
|Incumbency advantage means almost nothing especially considering that Julie Dzerowicz has been an unknown and low profile MP compared to other Liberal MPs in Downtown Toronto like Chrystia Freeland. The Liberal incumbent in this riding provincially, Christina Martins was crushed by Marit Stiles in the Ontario Election and this riding has continued to move further away from the Liberals since 2011. I expect Cash to win easily considering that the NDP polling numbers have improved in Ontario compared to 2015 and the Liberals have dropped.|
|Andrew Cash might be popular, but Dzerowicz now enjoys an incumbency advantage in an election is shaping up to be Trudeau vs Scheer, incumbent progressives vs socially conservative challengers. Given the polling position and trajectory of the parties in Ontario (which do not yet take into account recent low unemployment headlines), I don't see the NDP wrestling any seats away from the LPC in Toronto except potentially Danforth.|
|I'm going with my gut on this one. The Liberals have only lost this riding once, that was to Andrew Cash in 2011. I believe while Cash will make things interesting and close, I believe the Liberals will once again prevail.|
|While I think Davenport is leaning NDP, I think it's way too early to call. The Liberal incumbent has been relatively low profile. However, the NDP is polling lower than it was four years ago, when the Liberals eked out a surprising win over Cash. I expect the NDP to divert a lot of resources into this riding, maybe more than last time, given the NDP's limited prospects for growth in other areas of the country. Should be an exciting race to watch.|
|I think the Right Honourable Adult made an honest mistake by referring to this riding as an east Toronto, NDP territory. I'm sure he knows this riding's located in West Toronto and going back to the 1950's this riding's elected Liberals with the one exception in 2011. So, we must conclude that while the Liberals are the favourites here, the NDP shouldn't be counted out, especially with Andrew Cash carrying their banner. TCTC is the right call at the moment|
||Right Honourable Adult|
|While Dr. Bear didn't foresee us still talking about LavScam almost a month later, I think the good doctor is on the money when it comes to this area. With the return of the previous incumbent, Justin Trudeau's coattails won't be long enough for east Toronto incumbents in a natural NDP area. The one disruptor though would be if Elizabeth May begins to make a good impression during the campaign and has the potential to replace the NDP as the left-of-centre option in these parts...then things would get interesting here!|
|I have been very critical of Singh's performance as NDP leader as he has left me rather unimpressed (and continues to do so). Never the less, I do believe the NDP will pick up this seat despite losses elsewhere. Regardless of the current SNC-Lavalin brouhaha (which will be distant background noise and largely forgotten by October; it's already fading from public consciousness), the Liberals have a record and a significant chunk of progressive voters are going to swing away from them. That will bring the NDP and the well-known/well-established candidate over the top.|
I reserve the right to change my opinion in the months to come...
|The Liberals won by a very small margin in 2015 and the NDP took 60% last provincial election. |
With the SNC-Lavalin scandal, and just governments generally becoming more unpopular the longer they are in office, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2015 Liberal voters moving to the Conservatives and NDP. The Conservatives have generally done poorly in this riding, but any votes the Liberals loose will be good for the NDP.
|This was once one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, the candidate didn't even have to campaign here to win. Times have changed, I'm waiting to see how much of a negative impact will the scandal have on the Liberals before I make a prediction. Another factor that could work in NDP's favor, is Jagmeet, people have very low expectations of him and he can easily exceed them, and in that case many ridings like this can swing his way|
|This is probably the best chance for an NDP gain anywhere. Andrew Cash, the former MP is running again, and is a great fit for this urban district, and could be seen as far more effective than the incumbent MP. Even more striking were the provincial results, where the NDP won 60% despite an incumbent Liberal running. Such a swing is not required for the NDP to win, and a smaller swing is likelier with the Liberals doing better federally, but the NDP have definitely got an early edge.|
|Along with Danforth and Parkdale-High Park, this is one of the three ridings with the strongest NDP base in Toronto. With the growth of the hipster/creative class demographic, Davenport has shifted significantly to the left over the past 15-20 years; in the most recent municipal election this was John Tory's weakest ward and the best area for both Jennifer Keesmaat and Saron Gebresellassi. Andrew Cash is the perfect fit for modern day Davenport, while the current Liberal MP is a nonentity. Singh may not be impressing much nationally but I don't think he plays badly in ridings like this.|
|Former NDP MP Andrew Cash will be running again. This will be interesting to watch. |
Jagmeet Singh's emphasis on urban issues such as housing can play here.