Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:31

Constituency Profile


Bhatia, Sanjay

Cash, Andrew

Ciardullo, Francesco

Conover-Arthurs, Hannah

Dzerowicz, Julie

Kalevar, Chai

Rowley, Elizabeth

Young, Troy


Julie Dzerowicz

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Julie Dzerowicz 2194744.30%
Andrew Cash ** 2050641.40%
Carlos Oliveira 523310.60%
Dan Stein 15303.10%
Miguel Figueroa 2610.50%
Chai Kalevar 1070.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2940.75%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Marit Stiles 2761360.27%
Cristina Martins * 855818.68%
Federico Sanchez 737016.09%
Kirsten Snider 16243.54%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6311.77%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals will do well in Toronto tomorrow but I think they see some losses in the city. I think here will be 1 seat they lose.
16/10/19 AL
The Liberals support is still strong in Toronto. But has dipped a bit from what it was in 2015. There seems to be more Cash signs this time but that was the case last time too and Julie still beat Cash. If Liberals don't stay at home and show up at the polls on election day, Davenport will go Liberal. It is very possible that Cash and the NDP wins this riding, and most of the support for the NDP in Toronto polling numbers is from Davenport and Toronto-Danforth. With the rise in the recent polling for the NDP, depending on the poll, if the NDP are at 17% nationally they will probably lose this barely to Julie at the Liberals. If they are above 20% and at 22% or 23%, They will win Davenport. The Liberals need to be above 34% nationally to win Davenport, if they are below that, it will be dicey and too close to call, a toss up. However, I wouldn`t be too shocked to see Julie or Cash win this by a few thousand votes, both make sense depending how you look or analyze it. When two incumbents square off against each other, it is hard to predict. I will still go with Liberal just to be safe, as the Liberals swept Toronto in all 25 ridings last time. They might only lose two or three this time. One in North York and maybe one or two in downtown Toronto. Will it be Davenport? Some are voting strategically, and may give the Liberals a few more votes. The Liberals win it will be barely, the NDP win it might be a blowout in this riding by many thousand votes.
15/10/19 Doc
25 years in the neighbourhood.
The Liberal office featured a cardboard cutout of Justin Trudeau in the lobby but was otherwise an empty storefront. The MP made zero effort to connect with the riding and did nothing to raise brand or profile. Of the parents in the playground at my kids' school last week, not one of them could recall Dzerowicz' name. She's regarded as a non-player in Trudeau's government and generally a disappointment.
Andrew Cash is fondly remembered by neighbours, and has been working the ground game. His campaign is staffed by staffers from his former office and their office constantly busy with volunteers. The streets of my neighbourhood has been crawling with NDP volunteers repeatedly canvassing the neighbourhood.
12/10/19 Riverdale resident
Singh visiting Davenport 9 days before the election - this riding is seriously in play. Barring a change in momentum, this will go NDP with Toronto-Danforth on election night
12/10/19 Bo
With the NDP consistently rising in the polls nationally and in Ontario, Davenport is one of the seats that'll likely flip back to the NDP.
12/10/19 Danny
Toronto is definitely going overwhelmingly Liberal, but I sense enthusiasm for Trudeau in central Toronto has taken a significant hit. Fewer signs, fewer canvassers than 2015. Latest polls have the NDP approaching 20% and trending up. I expect much of this growth is in seats like these. Weak incumbent, Cash will take it.
12/10/19 Anthony
CBC Poll Tracker and individual polls have the NDP moving into the upper teens in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals. It looks like this will go to the NDP on election night if those trends continue.
03/10/19 MBM
Took a good long walk around this riding the other day (Ossington / Hallam / Dovercourt / Dupont / Dufferin / St. Clair) and while the signage suggests a close race between Cash and Dzerowicz, as of today, 338Canada shows the Liberals with a 16 point lead (albeit with a 7% plus/minus) and a 99% probability of winning the riding. Barring a major NDP surge and Liberal collapse over the next two and a half weeks, this race is over - time to put it in the red column.
30/09/19 South Islander
I apologize for the third post, but I hadn't noticed that Forum recently had the NDP at only 10% in Toronto! In 2004, the NDP won 20% in the city and the only seat that they won was the late Jack Layton's in Danforth, and even then by a narrow 5% margin. If Mainstreet has the LPC ‘comfortably ahead’ and Forum has the NDP at 10% city-wide, I think it's safe to call this. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3045/fed-hr-toronto-sept-2019/
30/09/19 R.O.
A mainstreet poll has the liberals leading here. although it seems early to make a solid prediction here , also the only riding in Toronto area where the ndp are running a former mp. And a riding that recently has flipping between liberals and ndp several times provincially and federally.
Liberals comfortably ahead in Toronto riding of Davenport: Mainstreet poll
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 28, 2019 6:00am
28/09/19 South Islander
I don't pay for iPolitics and haven't seen the numbers, but the headline speaks for itself:
25/09/19 Joe
@Seasaw, as a resident of University Rosedale in the corner of where Davenport and Spadina Fort York intersect. When I ride into Davenport, I see many more NDP signs than Liberal, and the incumbent seems to be less well known than the popular NDP candidate Andrew Cash. This may be because I live near the more southern NDP part of Davenport, but with a shift of just a couple of points in the polls, Davenport could become even more competitive, and one of the closest races in Ontario. My rating? Toss up.
22/09/19 seasaw
@Joe, You call this a historically NDP riding? You do realize that the NDP have only won this riding once in the last 84 years don't you? That was in 2011, a high water mark for the NDP and a total disaster of a campaign for the Liberals. Now that the NDP numbers are similar to those of Alexa McDonough era, there's no chance that the NDP can win here, as a matter of fact, the Liberals win will probably be a lot bigger than the last time.
22/09/19 jeff316
There are two scenarios that make Davenport interesting: 1) Will Julie increase her vote total? 2) Will the Greens break 15%? The rest has been decided.
20/09/19 Joe
I predict this riding will be extremely close between the Liberals and the NDP. Last election this riding was the closest Lib-NDP riding in Toronto, and only barely went Liberal. But, this election, as NDP voters return to their home party after the defeat Stephen Harper, progressives will unite around the NDP, leaving the Liberals with little wriggle room to win this historically NDP riding that was went overwhelmingly New Democratic in the last provincial election. My prediction: Too close to call, and perhaps one of the tightest races in the country, and definitely in Ontario.
09/09/19 Judy
The bland but personable Julie Dzerowicz should take this, thanks to her assiduous courting of the riding’s large Portugese community. She took the riding in 2015 from NDP incumbent Andrew Cash, who ran a superb campaign in 2011 but, once in office, proved a disappointment to many, especially progressives who hoped Cash would be a crusader for social justice like his old friend and punk rock bandmate, the firebrand, Charlie Angus. Instead, Cash spent much of his term jumping on the bandwagon of a local grassroots campaign to electrify the Metrolinx train line. Along with his friend Jonah Schein, the equally disappointing NDP MPP, the two spent much of their term calling for “Clean Trains” instead of social justice, affordable housing, homelessness and anti-poverty initiatives that their supporters hoped they would champion as members of the party’s progressive wing (though Cash did a great job spearheading a much lower profile and important campaign around precarious work which didn’t get a lot of attention.) In the process, they alienated progressives and the large Azorean Portugese community whose issues they virtually ignored even though a surprisingly large number of the traditional Liberal supporters voted for them the first time around, albeit still a minority. Cash will certainly run a better ground game than the uninspiring incumbent but will once again come up short.
06/09/19 MJC
Dzerowicz is very low-profile, verging on anonymous, but if the NDP's national and Ontario polling numbers stay in the basement, she'll win based on nothing other than the fact that she is the Liberal candidate. Cash is a much stronger candidate than Dzerowicz, but party affiliation will end up mattering more than personal qualities assuming the national race essentially becomes Trudeau vs. Scheer.
04/09/19 Stephen
EKOS last week showed the NDP at around 8% in Ontario, behind the Greens. They won't have enough support here to win, and I think Andrew Cash's performance here will be worse than in 2015, with both the Liberals and NDP bleeding support to the Green candidate, but the NDP to the larger extent.
Nolan's vote breakdown prediction seems pretty sound, though I think the NDP will lose by more like four percentage points.
28/08/19 Nolan
With the NDP not doing very well in polling right now I can see them not being able to pick up this riding but it will be close despite the fact that a former MP is running.
My Prediction is:
Liberal 37
NDP 35
Green 13
Conservative 12
15/08/20 ohara
Julie Dzerowicz is a weak MP who slipped through with the Trudeau wave. People barely know who she is and she's accomplished nothing as an MP. Even Ana Bailao's people can't stand her. In contrast Andrew Cash is well liked in Davenport, even among Liberal voters. He has also been a long-time and respected advocate for artists and cultural workers, many of whom reside in Davenport. He is a fantastic canvasser and has been working hard in the constituency since December. With strategic voting likely to be a big factor, it's going to be a tough year for the NDP and it needs to choose its targets very carefully. I expect the party to throw its west end resources here, rather than in neighbouring Parkdale-High Park.
04/08/20 A.S.
Somehow, the early chorus line of NDP submissions for Davenport struck me as jumping the gun, given Jagmeet's polling doldrums and given the stubborn, sinking sentiment among many of the urban left that stopping the Cons = uniting behind incumbent Liberals, even if it meant plugging one's nose while doing so. But undeniably, as it now stands, Davenport is the likeliest 416 pickup prospect for the NDP--Cash has a good deal to do with this, of course, as well as Dzerowicz being arguably the weakest link in the Libs' Toronto caucus plus the demographic changes that led Davenport to morph into by far the 'leftiest' ward in last year's mayoral race. So to point out that the NDP has 'only' won here in 2011 sells Davenport short--but still, the NDP has had a long history of supposed 'sure things' winding up not-so-sure. Which means, Andrew Cash might wind up being this year's answer to Olivia Chow in '97 and '04--but better (and more likely) that than Olivia Chow in '15. And had the NDP leadership race turned out differently, he practically already *is* the Olivia Chow to Charlie Angus's Jack Layton...
16/07/19 Sam
Sure, we had this as NDP, but things have changed and i agree with the projection change. The poll in Toronto was a surprise to a lot of us but it confirms once again the poor fortunes for the Dippers.
12/07/19 seasaw
Based on the latest Forum Research poll numbers, NDP doesn't stand a chance here or anywhere in Toronto. The Liberals are at 46%, followed by the CPC at 26%, and NDP is at 12%. Now these numbers may change, and probably will, let's say the Liberals lose 10 points ( possible but not probable.), and let's assume NDP is the major beneficiary ( 6 points ), that would make it 36-30-18, still not enough to win here. By today's poll numbers, the Liberals will win 23 to 25 of Toronto's 25 seats, CPC 0-2 and NDP, forget about. Also, I've mentioned this 1,000 times and will mention it again a million
times if I have to, never compare provincial election results to the federal one.
12/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Andrew Cash is the best candidate the NDP could have to try to retake what is absolutely a winnable seat.
But I think we're back to the Liberal-Majority Chretien type days where things are going too well for lefties to bother with the moral outrage required to take a progressive stand and vote NDP, for the average urban Torontonian. Yes there's outrage against Doug Ford but Trudeau has cast Ford as a villain and likewise, so Ford has to Trudeau. These voters love that the Trudeau Liberals are ‘standing up’ to Doug Ford.
Latest Toronto Star poll has the Liberals out front with 46% of voters in Toronto while the NDP trails with 12%. Hey -- a lot can still happen, but we have to face facts here: these seats only went NDP in the heady days of Layton & Mulcair, back when the leader of the NDP could say with a straight face that they were running for Prime Minister.
22/06/19 Ontario Voter
Incumbency advantage means almost nothing especially considering that Julie Dzerowicz has been an unknown and low profile MP compared to other Liberal MPs in Downtown Toronto like Chrystia Freeland. The Liberal incumbent in this riding provincially, Christina Martins was crushed by Marit Stiles in the Ontario Election and this riding has continued to move further away from the Liberals since 2011. I expect Cash to win easily considering that the NDP polling numbers have improved in Ontario compared to 2015 and the Liberals have dropped.
11/06/19 South Islander
Andrew Cash might be popular, but Dzerowicz now enjoys an incumbency advantage in an election is shaping up to be Trudeau vs Scheer, incumbent progressives vs socially conservative challengers. Given the polling position and trajectory of the parties in Ontario (which do not yet take into account recent low unemployment headlines), I don't see the NDP wrestling any seats away from the LPC in Toronto except potentially Danforth.
31/05/19 seasaw
I'm going with my gut on this one. The Liberals have only lost this riding once, that was to Andrew Cash in 2011. I believe while Cash will make things interesting and close, I believe the Liberals will once again prevail.
01/05/19 Chris N
While I think Davenport is leaning NDP, I think it's way too early to call. The Liberal incumbent has been relatively low profile. However, the NDP is polling lower than it was four years ago, when the Liberals eked out a surprising win over Cash. I expect the NDP to divert a lot of resources into this riding, maybe more than last time, given the NDP's limited prospects for growth in other areas of the country. Should be an exciting race to watch.
17/04/19 seasaw
I think the Right Honourable Adult made an honest mistake by referring to this riding as an east Toronto, NDP territory. I'm sure he knows this riding's located in West Toronto and going back to the 1950's this riding's elected Liberals with the one exception in 2011. So, we must conclude that while the Liberals are the favourites here, the NDP shouldn't be counted out, especially with Andrew Cash carrying their banner. TCTC is the right call at the moment
13/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
While Dr. Bear didn't foresee us still talking about LavScam almost a month later, I think the good doctor is on the money when it comes to this area. With the return of the previous incumbent, Justin Trudeau's coattails won't be long enough for east Toronto incumbents in a natural NDP area. The one disruptor though would be if Elizabeth May begins to make a good impression during the campaign and has the potential to replace the NDP as the left-of-centre option in these parts...then things would get interesting here!
20/03/19 Dr. Bear
I have been very critical of Singh's performance as NDP leader as he has left me rather unimpressed (and continues to do so). Never the less, I do believe the NDP will pick up this seat despite losses elsewhere. Regardless of the current SNC-Lavalin brouhaha (which will be distant background noise and largely forgotten by October; it's already fading from public consciousness), the Liberals have a record and a significant chunk of progressive voters are going to swing away from them. That will bring the NDP and the well-known/well-established candidate over the top.
I reserve the right to change my opinion in the months to come...
13/03/19 jzzz
The Liberals won by a very small margin in 2015 and the NDP took 60% last provincial election.
With the SNC-Lavalin scandal, and just governments generally becoming more unpopular the longer they are in office, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2015 Liberal voters moving to the Conservatives and NDP. The Conservatives have generally done poorly in this riding, but any votes the Liberals loose will be good for the NDP.
03/03/19 seasaw
This was once one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, the candidate didn't even have to campaign here to win. Times have changed, I'm waiting to see how much of a negative impact will the scandal have on the Liberals before I make a prediction. Another factor that could work in NDP's favor, is Jagmeet, people have very low expectations of him and he can easily exceed them, and in that case many ridings like this can swing his way
01/03/19 Sam
This is probably the best chance for an NDP gain anywhere. Andrew Cash, the former MP is running again, and is a great fit for this urban district, and could be seen as far more effective than the incumbent MP. Even more striking were the provincial results, where the NDP won 60% despite an incumbent Liberal running. Such a swing is not required for the NDP to win, and a smaller swing is likelier with the Liberals doing better federally, but the NDP have definitely got an early edge.
24/02/19 MF
Along with Danforth and Parkdale-High Park, this is one of the three ridings with the strongest NDP base in Toronto. With the growth of the hipster/creative class demographic, Davenport has shifted significantly to the left over the past 15-20 years; in the most recent municipal election this was John Tory's weakest ward and the best area for both Jennifer Keesmaat and Saron Gebresellassi. Andrew Cash is the perfect fit for modern day Davenport, while the current Liberal MP is a nonentity. Singh may not be impressing much nationally but I don't think he plays badly in ridings like this.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Former NDP MP Andrew Cash will be running again. This will be interesting to watch.
Jagmeet Singh's emphasis on urban issues such as housing can play here.

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