Election Prediction Project

Don Valley East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:34

Constituency Profile


Hendry, John P.

Ma, Michael

Ratansi, Yasmin

Thompson, Nicholas

Turcotte, Dan


Yasmin Ratansi

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.76 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Yasmin Ratansi 2404857.80%
Maureen Harquail 1215529.20%
Khalid Ahmed 430710.40%
Laura Elizabeth Sanderson 10782.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1880.53%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley East
   (61.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Don Valley West
   (38.56% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Coteau * 1301235.93%
Denzil Minnan-Wong 1198433.09%
Khalid Ahmed 993727.44%
Mark Wong 9172.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5071.61%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A Liberal riding since 1993 sans 2011. Can't see the seat changing this time. Liberal hold.
04/08/20 A.S.
Michael Coteau's holding this provincially in 2018 is as symbolically important as John McKay holding Scarborough-Guildwood federally in 2011. If Denzil Minnan-Wong couldn't carry it provincially (municipally is a different matter), *no* Con can federally.
03/05/19 seasaw
While this isn't as safe as a Liberal seat as it seems, the Tories have to be in a position to pick up 9-10 416 seats in order to take this, and right now it doesn't seem like they are, out of the 3 Don Valley seats, this is the least likely to change hands. Liberal hold for now
04/04/19 Sam
I don't see anything other than a Liberal hold here. With the OLP Victory plus the high margin for Yasmin Ratansi, who is running again, this should be a highly likely Liberal hold.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
One of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario.
Under the current boundaries the LPC would have won this during their 2011 meltdown.
This is also one of the seven seats held by the LPO.

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