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Don Valley West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:39
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Kistindey, Amanda

Kittredge, John

MacDowell, Laurel

Oliphant, Rob

Prittie, Ian

Robertson, Yvonne


Incumbent:

Rob Oliphant

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

102508
99820

41320
39723

30.22 km²
3392.0/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Oliphant 2747253.80%
John Carmichael ** 1920637.60%
Syeda Riaz 30766.00%
Natalie Hunt 8481.70%
John Kittredge 3250.60%
Elizabeth Hill 840.20%
Sharon Cromwell 750.10%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1989443.89%
487210.75%
1880441.49%
16163.57%
Other 1400.31%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Don Valley West
   (87.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   St. Paul's
   (12.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kathleen Wynne * 1780238.89%
Jon Kieran 1762138.49%
Amara Possian 862018.83%
Morgan Bailey 12682.77%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

2183056.30%
1250432.25%
26656.87%
12373.19%
Other 5361.38%


20/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
In the Mulroney yrs. this was a PC seat, it went Conservative in 2011 but now in 2019 I think it goes Liberal as it did in 2015.
11/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
There was a mainstreet poll that has the liberals leading in this riding, its Kathleen Wynnes riding provincially and mostly been liberal federally except 2011 when it went cpc.
Liberals up in 2 Toronto ridings, Mainstreet polls,By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 10, 2019 12:00am
https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/10/liberals-up-in-2-toronto-ridings-while-bloc-leads-in-2-sw-quebec-seats-mainstreet-polls/
04/10/19 MAF
70.54.129.100
With all due respect, Hillary, I question the honesty of your post on DVW. I live in DVW, and I have yet to see a single Green sign. There is a very thin sprinkling of NDP signs, especially in the middle of the riding. The Green candidate is consistently absent from debates. The battle is between Liberals and Conservatives, with the Liberals clearly winning the sign war. This riding should remain red.
30/09/19 Hillary
108.63.21.19
As a resident of Don Valley West, I see that the Greens are doing surprisingly well in this riding. In my area, they have more signs and supporters than the Liberals and the Conservatives combined. I believe this riding is battleground between the GREENS and the LIBERALS.
24/09/19 Rob R
69.159.62.162
The Leaside debate on Monday, September 23, may prove influential.
Before an unexpectedly large crowd of 300 people, Robertson stumbled: talking about psychosis when asked about cannabis, trumpeting the return of boutique tax credits (children's arts and sports) when asked for policy ideas, and hinting that having children was to be preferred in a politician.
Meanwhile, Oliphant -- admittedly a preacher by training, and a practised politician by now -- was coherent, articulate, and passionate. He fulfilled the incumbent's basic task of reassuring people that, despite recent foibles, the government was the safe, sensible choice.
The Green candidate was a no-show, while the NDP and PPC candidates seemed decent enough but in this riding are assuredly no-hopers.
All of which is to say that Leasiders have peeked outside and are likely to stay put. Barring a total national collapse, this is a safe Liberal hold.
04/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Keep in mind that even in his 2011 defeat, Rob Oliphant had the 4th highest Lib share in the 416--and of the four, two of them went 50%+ provincial PC in 2018, the third went NDP with the Libs in third, and only DVW stayed Liberal (yeah, with a Wynne boost; but, still). Though perhaps I should maintain the *idea* of DVW as Con-petitive on historical grounds--but at this point, the affluent base that keeps Team Blue's bottom at around a third of the vote might as well be but a supersized version of the rumpish role Rosedale and Forest Hill presently play within their respective ridings. And Scheer can't even boast Stephen Harper's Leaside childhood.
26/07/19 MH39
70.29.13.21
It's much too early to call the election. Besides, my forecast four years ago was far from accurate: I thought either a Liberal or a Conservative minority was possible, and I certainly did not predict a Liberal majority. However, I called this seat for the Liberals, and I was right. I don't see it changing hands this time. Unwillingly, Premier Ford has become a powerful aid to the Liberals, and this will help them in DVW.
16/07/19 MF
69.156.77.223
The old PCs were strong in Don Valley West as they had more of a hold on affluent voters. Today, Kathleen Wynne's affluent home riding is too full of educated elites (a strongly Liberal demographic) for the Conservatives to take it. Especially with Doug Ford as Premier.
10/05/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
Sure she has a very high profile, but if Kathleen Wynne could survive in 2018, it's hard to imagine that Don Valley West flips. Most of the riding is very affluent, almost elitist, while Thorncliffe has a large Muslim community who would be attracted to the Liberals especially with the rural Conservative base taking a more anti-Islamic stance (even if not publicly or within the party brass).
The Conservatives have dropped from the days of the old 'Toronto Tories' who were mostly Red Tories. That said, they do retain a strong base (and can even get to 40% at times), but if immigration and populism enter the picture, the Liberals should pull away. Also, the lack of vote splitting here (the NDP are irrelevant) will limit any chance for a pickup. Oliphant should get another term even if on the opposition side.
04/05/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
At this time, it looks like a Liberal hold, though things might change before election day. It would take an 8 point swing to turn this riding around, right now, it doesn't look like it's going to happen, but, you never know.
08/04/19 Sam
86.188.98.49
Like its neighbours to the West and East, I don't see the Liberals losing here - the Conservatives won when the Liberals collapsed. If the Liberals perform better than 2011, then there's no overtaking them. This also stayed red provincially, arguably because of Kathleen Wynne, but equally if the Conservatives had a chance of taking this, her candidacy wouldn't have saved this riding. I expect the Liberals to win, probably by single digits.
20/03/19 Dr. Bear
69.165.137.89
It took an out and out Liberal collapse to swing this blue. Despite what the opposition is hoping for with the current SNC brouhaha, there is no such collapse imminent.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This barely went Tory in 2011 and provincially stayed Liberal (albeit barely) even during the meltdown so short of the Liberals falling to third place I suspect they will hold this. Nonetheless the Tories have a strong base here and should have a decent second place showing, maybe even crack the 40% mark, but would be surprised if they actually win this.



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