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References:
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 | 20/10/19 |
Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188 |
The Conservative could lose every other riding in Ontario but they'd be safe here. Easy CPC hold. |
 | 25/09/19 |
R.O. 24.146.17.200 |
Not really a surprise but was a mainstreet poll released today that has Erin Otoole leading in this riding , hes been mp for a number of years and father mpp for same riding. Tories lead in Durham: Mainstreet polls By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 25, 2019 6:15am https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/25/liberals-in-front-in-n-s-battleground-tories-lead-in-durham-mainstreet-polls/ |
 | 08/08/20 |
A.S. 99.225.32.21 |
Befitting O'Toole's status as the "moderate" leadership contender, Durham is "moderate" in its Conservative safety--not that it's "moderately safe"; but rather that the Cons win by sensible amounts here rather than Thornhill-esque landslides. Though one might wonder what would have happened had Bev Oda rather than O'Toole been the candidate in 2015. (Probably still would have won; but by a tighter margin.) |
 | 29/05/19 |
Craig 24.213.108.184 |
Erin O'Toole is very well liked here and should easily win another term. Sure, it went Liberal provincially in 2014, but that was a complete fluke against a very weak Ontario PC candidate in an open seat race, which was corrected last year. There is no indication anything like that will happen this time and he should open up his margin of victory. O'Toole is enough of a Red Tory that he can easily win suburban swing voters who are very prevalent in the Bowmanville area, while also not so much of one that he alienates more conservative exurban/rural voters in the northern part of the riding. If the Liberals win another majority (not looking likely right now but you never know), he could very well become their next leader. |
 | 19/04/19 |
Sam 86.139.31.5 |
Defence Minister or not, Erin O'Toole should be re-elected. The Liberals would have to be getting a 200 seat majority with Granville Anderson running for this to flip. |
 | 13/04/19 |
Laurence Putnam 50.68.187.24 |
I'm not convinced that his status (or anyone's status) as a former leadership contender matters to rank-and-file voters who don't pay attention to matters of party politics; nevertheless, and perhaps this is part of Miles' point, O'Toole's overall high profile in a riding which the Tories have won consistently for the past 50 years, excepting only the years of the divided right, make O'Toole's long term survival in a seat like this a near certainty. His re-election this time is a virtual guarantee. |
 | 24/02/19 |
M. Lunn 174.7.100.252 |
As a largely exurban riding, it already leans heavily in that direction. With Erin O'Toole being a former leadership candidate, he will almost certainly get a cabinet post if they win and if they lose, he will be a frontrunner for Scheer's replacement so Tory hold. |
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