Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:47

Constituency Profile


Giancroce, Jonathan

O'Toole, Erin

Price, Evan

Virtue, Brenda

Whalen-Wright, Sarah


Erin O'Toole

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



869.61 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Erin O'Toole ** 2896745.10%
Corinna Traill 2294935.80%
Derek Spence 1028916.00%
Stacey Leadbetter 16162.50%
Andrew Moriarity 3640.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4990.99%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (79.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (17.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lindsey Park 2857546.99%
Joel Usher 1925331.66%
Granville Anderson * 1023716.84%
Michelle Corbett 23603.88%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4050.84%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Conservative could lose every other riding in Ontario but they'd be safe here. Easy CPC hold.
25/09/19 R.O.
Not really a surprise but was a mainstreet poll released today that has Erin O’toole leading in this riding , he’s been mp for a number of years and father mpp for same riding.
Tories lead in Durham: Mainstreet polls
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 25, 2019 6:15am
08/08/20 A.S.
Befitting O'Toole's status as the "moderate" leadership contender, Durham is "moderate" in its Conservative safety--not that it's "moderately safe"; but rather that the Cons win by sensible amounts here rather than Thornhill-esque landslides. Though one might wonder what would have happened had Bev Oda rather than O'Toole been the candidate in 2015. (Probably still would have won; but by a tighter margin.)
29/05/19 Craig
Erin O'Toole is very well liked here and should easily win another term. Sure, it went Liberal provincially in 2014, but that was a complete fluke against a very weak Ontario PC candidate in an open seat race, which was corrected last year. There is no indication anything like that will happen this time and he should open up his margin of victory.
O'Toole is enough of a Red Tory that he can easily win suburban swing voters who are very prevalent in the Bowmanville area, while also not so much of one that he alienates more conservative exurban/rural voters in the northern part of the riding. If the Liberals win another majority (not looking likely right now but you never know), he could very well become their next leader.
19/04/19 Sam
Defence Minister or not, Erin O'Toole should be re-elected. The Liberals would have to be getting a 200 seat majority with Granville Anderson running for this to flip.
13/04/19 Laurence Putnam
I'm not convinced that his status (or anyone's status) as a former leadership contender matters to rank-and-file voters who don't pay attention to matters of party politics; nevertheless, and perhaps this is part of Miles' point, O'Toole's overall high profile in a riding which the Tories have won consistently for the past 50 years, excepting only the years of the divided right, make O'Toole's long term survival in a seat like this a near certainty. His re-election this time is a virtual guarantee.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
As a largely exurban riding, it already leans heavily in that direction. With Erin O'Toole being a former leadership candidate, he will almost certainly get a cabinet post if they win and if they lose, he will be a frontrunner for Scheer's replacement so Tory hold.

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