Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:52

Constituency Profile


Aryeh-Bain, Chani

DeBoer, Reuben

Mendicino, Marco

Nash, Alexandra

Staffieri, Michael


Marco Mendicino

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.67 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marco Mendicino 2727848.90%
Joe Oliver ** 2378842.60%
Andrew Thomson 35056.30%
Matthew Chisholm 7991.40%
Ethan Buchman 3080.60%
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici 1140.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Robin Martin 1999940.38%
Mike Colle * 1904238.45%
Robyn Vilde 898518.14%
Reuben Anthony Deboer 11902.4%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4070.98%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold here. Mendocino won this seat vs. a powerful minister in 2015. In 2019 the CPC have a weaker candidate running here.
28/09/19 jeff316
Should be a slam dunk for Mendicino -- but there are an awful lot of NDP signs out. Given the NDP will definitely be third, if those signs turn into voters it could make it closer for the Conservatives than some realize.
27/09/19 R.O.
Somewhat of a forgotten riding this year when compared to 2015 election when Joe Oliver was the mp and lost the riding to the liberals. riding mostly seen as a liberal stronghold although has still voted conservative a few times. New cpc candidate this year Chani Aryeh Bain who isn’t that well known even among those who follow politics. I need to see how the election plays out before making a solid prediction.
26/08/19 seasaw
The way things stand now with the latest Toronto poll numbers, the CPC is poised to win 0-2 seats in the 416 region. There are at least 3 ridings that will go to the CPC before this one does, things may change as the campaign progresses, but keep in mind that Toronto 416 region is the last place where polls flip, right the opposite of 905, where it's usually the first place to flip.
22/08/20 Sam
Going with my original call - I still struggle to see it going Conservative.
15/08/20 MF
Not quite as "elite" as its east of Yonge neighbor, Eglinton-Lawrence was a narrow PC win, but still had the second highest Liberal vote share in Toronto due to a sort of "Lib Dem rather than Labour" dynamic. The Doug Ford represented the completion of the overturning of the "traditional" pattern. Mike Colle won the North Toronto polls by about 20 points but saw his old school Italian voting base in the west bleed heavily to Ford. It's hard to see a path to victory for the federal Conservatives. The west side of the riding will stay Liberal, and Scheer isn't going to be making up for this in North Toronto. The Conservatives can count on the right-wing Orthodox Jewish vote (and they're running a candidate from that community) but that won't be enough.
04/08/20 A.S.
The fact that the PCs won this *at all* in '18 is more surprising than their having won it only narrowly--and of course, Joe Oliver in '15 benefited from the heavy-duty central campaign infrastructure and 'establishment' status that being the finance minister brings; whereas the present CPC candidate seems more the sop-to-the-Jewish-electorate sort (and was a distant second to Josh Colle municipally in 2014). And whether he's stellar or not, Mendicino doesn't seem sufficiently the sort to be voted *against*. So while it might be a gamble to call this unreservedly for the Libs, I (momentarily) don't feel the dynamic for it to be otherwise.
10/05/19 Craig
This is the only seat in old Toronto (really, south of the 401) where the Conservatives have a decent chance, although it won't necessarily be easy. Joe Oliver isn't running again though and it was very close in 2018 provincially (which is partially due to Mike Colle and also due to the affluent nature of the riding). This is not a good riding for right-populism and is more business oriented.
That said, Marco Mendocino is not a very good Liberal candidate either, so this should be close despite the fact that demographically Eglinton-Lawrence should favour the LPC. However, if the CPC can't pick up the seat in October, good luck doing it in a future election - the trend is not their friend here. Too close right now, probably tilting Liberal.
12/04/19 Sam
I still believe that this riding favours the Liberals. However, with the increase in the likelihood of a Conservative government since my prediction, this is better off in the Too Close To Call column, as I think they should take this in a majority situation. The Liberals aren't strong enough that they don't need to worry here.
10/04/19 seasaw
I have to disagree with the previous poster, Marco Mendocino is neither a good MP, nor a great candidate. He has been trying his hardest to please the PM, instead of his constituents. Let's not bring provincial politics into the prediction, yes the seat was close, but that was because the incumbent had served for nearly 1/4 of a century. Mendocino has incumbency advantage, but if the CPC were to win 2-3 seats in Toronto, this would be one of them.
06/04/19 Legolas
I think this should be too close to call for now. The reason why it was so close provincially is due to Mike Colle's popularity and the general distaste for Ford-style conservatism by the wealthier 'red tory/blue liberal' types who voted in droves for Joe Oliver in 2011. Scheer's definitely more palatable to these voters but let's see who the candidate is going to be. If Ford starts to play an active role in the federal campaign I may put the needle at leaning LPC, but still not out of reach for the CPC.
03/03/19 Sam
This was the closest Conservative riding to downtown Toronto in 2011, and indeed the Conservatives have a chance here, but as we saw in the provincial election, the right wing, sometimes populist brand is not something that appeals as heavily here, with the PCs only winning narrowly. This probably isn't a particularly good riding for Andrew Scheer as well as Doug Ford; the Conservatives could win it if they are forming the government but with good candidate Marco Mendocino running again as well, William Luke has a lot of work to do.
03/03/19 seasaw
This riding along with the neighboring York Centre, were once among the safest Liberal seats, Liberal candidates were easily elected, even during the Tory landslide of 1984. However, the Liberals lost both in 2011, and the last time, during their sweep of 416, this one was close. With current polling numbers this would be TCTC, and that is before the former AG's testimony

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