|Karen Vecchio held this riding easily for the cpc in 2015 despite being a rookie candidate and a bad year for the cpc. Shes increased her presence in Ottawa since then and should keep this riding.|
|For Vecchio to nearly hit 50% *as a non-incumbent* amidst the CPC-uncongenial circumstances of 2015 tells you all that you need to know. And let's not overestimate past Liberal solidity here; sure, there was Premier Mitch, but Gar Knutson was a sluggish performer over the Chretien years, and Steve Peters provincially was a force unto himself. Then again, the left-leaning London rump's grown quickly in recent years as development's leapfrogged former municipal boundaries...but a rump's a rump.|
|Outside city limits in Southwestern Ontario a Tory incumbent can reasonably expect to be returned to Ottawa without much difficult.|
|The clue here is in the riding's name - London isn't a significant part of the riding, whereas rural and conservative Elgin and Middlesex are. The latter areas will again seal it for the Conservatives.|
|Yes, the Liberals held this solidly for many years federally and provincially. That was in a different era though and Trudeau is a huge liability in this mostly working class riding. Don't be fooled by the London part, it is the more conservative parts of the city in this riding, along with deeply conservative Elgin and rural Middlesex where they routinely run up the numbers.|
Most likely, the results will resemble the 2018 provincial election and the 2011 federal election - dominating wins for the Conservatives. The only thing to watch could be if the PPC can put up a fight; Karen Vecchio is a pretty Red Tory for a riding like this. That said, it would probably take a perfect split on the right for the Liberals or NDP to even have a chance.
Much like in the rural and small town Midwest, the days of progressives doing well in rural southwestern Ontario are pretty much over.
|The Liberals used to be competitive here, but recently have not even be competitive in good elections such as 2014 provincially or 2015 federally so the Tories should hold this without too much difficulty. This is part of the Rust Belt so much like the difficulties the Democrats have had in the Midwest, Liberals are facing similar troubles in small town/rural Southwestern Ontario.|