| Predictions of NDP Doom? More so an assessment of the current situation. If we're actually looking at some polls, the NDP shouldn't just be losing this, they could easily lose London-Fanshawe to the Liberals. Sometimes there is a tendency to overestimate the NDP on this site, and this is no exception. After all, they couldn't have won last time without a declining Conservative vote, and it is hard to see their vote declining further with the machine of Chris Lewis. Yes Taras Natyshak's poor fortunes may have been an anomaly but in neighbouring ridings, the NDP underperformed, just stronger than normal here, and besides, like Oshawa, this more ripe for the CPC federally. I would say this is definitely leaning CPC, closer to likely than tossup.|
|Let's remember that this wasn't just the NDP's only Ontario pickup in 2015; it was their first Ontario pickup from the Cons since 1988. And I, too, wouldn't jump to conclusions about this being an inevitable CPC pickup, notwithstanding Lewis's provincial outperformance--but I also wouldn't jump to conclusions about Taras Natyshak's 60% in 2014 being any kind of reasonable NDP barometer; like it or not, his 2018 result's a more "sober" reflection of the riding's mood. And whatever Jeff Watson's personal limitations in 2015, let's not overestimate the Cons here--remember that Essex was something of a party wasteland until Watson scored it, and even over his tenure the vote for him seemed more "parked" than "rooted" thanks to that universal Ontario HarperCon "once elected, for keeps" pattern that endured until 2015. Maybe there's more of a "rootedness" today--a sort of washover from CKL to the east, and perhaps feeding off Whelan-era Liberal entrails--but not to the point of inevitability; and certainly not when we're dealing with the quirk of traditional NDP strength and current NDP incumbency. Jagmeet or no Jagmeet.|
|As the NDP continues its slide they will lose this 2015 pick up from the Tories. Essex will revert back to the Conservatives|
|Whoa there, calm down about the projections of NDP doom. Sure there are lots of places where the NDP is unlikely to do well, for example Quebec and the atlantic provinces, but the numbers are on the NDP's side here, 338 has it as 'likely NDP' despite their mediocre numbers in the province. The idea that the NDP was at their ceiling at 42% is downright ludicrous given that a couple of elections ago the provincial riding went 60% NDP. Sure it was closer with Doug Ford, but he's a classic populist, and this is about as classically populist of a riding you can get in Canada. Scheer is not a populist, he won't capitalize here, while Singh is taking some pretty populist policy stances, so the populist votes should tilt to the NDP. If anything, I see this as being a possible anomalously strong riding for Bernier, the demographics seem right. Needless to say, that wouldn't be good for the Conservatives either, so going against polling trends and calling this for the Conservatives seems nonsensical.|
|While I agree with much of what Laurence has said below, I can not agree with a CPC call right now. Current Ontario polls have the NDP at 2015 levels while the CPC are down a couple of points. This should still be listed as TCTC.|
|Not a commentary on the incumbent; I just think she pretty much hit the NDP ceiling here last time at 42%, and given their current polling numbers, dropping even five or six points will probably cost them the riding. Not a lot of Liberal support to rely on for strategic voting either.|
Christopher Lewis' provincial run built him the engine here he needed to succeed in this campaign. I would also suggest that part of the NDP victory last time was voter fatigue not just with the federal Conservatives but with Jeff Watson personally. This is one of those ridings where in 2015 I think the Tories would actually have been better off without their incumbent, and in 2019 I would expect, mirroring the national polling, that you'll see the Tories up and the NDP down here.
|I think this riding is probably leaning NDP. Tracey Ramsey was able to win here in 2015 against a 4-term Conservative MP, in a year in which the NDP took a hit in support elsewhere. Former CPC MP Jeff Watson is now running for a Conservative nomination in Alberta, which may be an indication he doesn't think he can win here again.|
Now that the Conservatives have fallen behind the Liberals in Ontario because of Ford's unpopularity, it may help the NDP here.
|I think that Mike B is right. If Charlie Angus were leader, I could see this riding sticking with NDP. Its harder for me to imagine the current leader stumping down here, even if he will (hopefully) dress down for it.|
Credit where credit is due, Ramsey is obviously a formidable candidate if she was able to beat someone who was able to beat a Whelan. But the 2015 Conservative vote here really did represent a collapse- you cant call a loss of 10+ points anything else.
The leader will make the difference here.
|This is interesting as Chris Lewis is the former PC candidate and he is running federally. He did well and got over 40% while losing. Meanwhile, Tracey Ramsay has a prominent role in Singh's Shadow cabinet and is now a front benched, so this will be quite a battle. No chance for the Libs.|
|Conservative pick-up predicted here.|
Tracey Ramsay has been a very credible and bright MP notwithstanding the nursing credentials bit, and has brought some sense of dignity to local representation. However the reality on the ground supports the following:
- Rural and working class residents see themselves represented more by unbuttoned collars and no jackets than with GQ Harry Rosen collections. Actually we don't even know what Harry Rosen is down here.
- Chris Lewis has served his community in elected office previously and his family is truly a local rural success story. There is a natural affinity for entrepreneurs who find success.
- Chris has been door knocking in the areas he didn't perform well in provincially for the last several months. He has learned his lesson from his last run.
- The Liberal vote will go down and the NDP has already hit their plateau. Conservatives stayed home last time from Harper and Watson fatigue. They will not this time.
- Rick Nicholls earned his most solid result of his career in 2018 next door whereas the NDP identified it and Sarnia Lambton as likely pickups. The Conservative brand is improving in the area and these seats are in reach.
- Residual anger over Ramsay's travel and spousal expenses. Over the top politician spending does not play well in Essex and several municipal councillors have been turfed on this issue.
|'Collapse in the Conservative vote', Sam? They went from 24,200 votes in 2011 to 21,600 in 2015. Hardly a collapse! This is still a toss-up but the irrelevance of the Liberals here give the NDP the upper hand. Mirroring the provincial results, this may end up as one of the worst seats for the federal Liberals in Ontario. A complete reversal from the days when the Whelan family ruled, and it all comes down to Trudeau's brand of leftist identity politics being anathema in these parts.|
|I'm going to say NDP hold. It was close provincially because of Ford. Scheer is more like Hudak than Ford.|
|Tough call. This is your classic Obama-Trump or Labour-Leave riding, which is probably why a provincial blowout in 2014 became a nailbiter in 2018 - because of Doug Ford's populism, not because of conservative policies. The NDP have the advantage of the labour movement, but if immigration becomes an issue, that could play into the Conservatives' hands here (even if it kills them in the 905). The Liberals are irrelevant here and this is one of their worst Ontario ridings (under 10% possibly), but will 2015 leakage go blue or orange?|
|This riding ended up as the only NDP gain in Ontario, not solely due to the strength of the NDP in the Windsor area, but the collapse in the Conservative vote. Tracey Ramsey is however a dedicated MP who has moved to the Liberal frontbench, and her experience and work on employment and trade matters gives her something to put forward to the voters of this riding. This can be reinforced by her gain in vote share last time round Such is still easy to offset, and the Conservatives nearly gained the seat provincially due to, oddly, a collapse in the NDP vote. These circumstances are unusual, and make what would seem to be a likely NDP victory something less certain.|