Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:51:24

Constituency Profile


Duncan, Kirsty

Farah, Naiima

Ford, Renata

Ghuman, Nancy

Kaur, Sarabjit

Mehta, Sudhir


Kirsty Duncan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



47.77 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kirsty Duncan ** 2625162.40%
Toyin Dada 967323.00%
Faisal Hassan 522012.40%
Akhtar Ayub 5241.20%
Anna Di Carlo 2320.60%
George Szebik 1640.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5941.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Etobicoke North
   (94.68% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Etobicoke Centre
   (5.32% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doug Ford 1905552.48%
Mahamud Amin 921025.37%
Shafiq Qaadri * 660118.18%
Nancy Kaur Ghuman 10262.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10833.71%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold. Provincially this is Doug Ford's political home but I doubt he plays much of a role in this riding that has been Liberal since 1988.
29/09/19 The Jackal
While Reneya Ford will give the PPC their highest vote share in Ontario. This is a safe Liberal seat and I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed above 50 percent.
27/09/19 R.O.
I’m not convinced 25 % of the voters will vote for the people’s party even with Reneta Ford as the candidate .either way the people’s party won’t win here , there known as the anti-immigration party . this riding has one of the highest % of immigrants in the Toronto area. the race here is perhaps much different than the 2015 election with Reneta Ford as a candidate.
24/09/19 prognosticator15
This riding was called way too early. Unlike her colleague in promoting climate pseudoscience for global control, McKenna in Ottawa, who would be reelected as a preferred choice of globalist bureaucratic interests, Duncan runs in a more politically diverse riding, even if her role in promoting so called 'science'/i.e. progressivist indoctrination policy is too obscure and even dangerous of a subject matter to raise as an issue for the opponents. Liberal calls on this site may correctly consider traditional Cons weakness here (even in 2011) and an unimpressive candidate, but underestimate the rising PPC tide. While I am not in the slightest bought on a notion that Canada's last truly centre-right party is able to get anything more than a half dozen seats in the election, it has been quite successful so far in attracting support for selected star candidates in selected few Liberal ridings, without hitting PPC in their traditional strongholds, at least for now (Beauce is a special case). Ford is the most well known of PPC candidates save Max himself, and, beyond Ford family history, this riding has a potential for PPC surge in particular after the debates where its leader now got a spot. In fact, in suburban-urban ridings like this opposition to unending chain migration and illegals is particularly high, from traditional as well as immigrant constituents, assuming Bernier continues to utilize this weapon well against Trudeau, with Scheer remaining inept.
Duncan has obvious advantages of a well-oiled political machine and name recognition among progressives (and NDP will not rise higher, in spite of being far from collapsing in Peel and metro Toronto), but Ford name makes it close to the end - family complaints might even help. With a good ground game and strong PPC political stance, CPC vote will be further squeezed to make it a two-party competition - unfortunately, not primarily because of Libs perpetrating global climate and other global governance, but a close fight is ahead here.
16/09/19 Tory Revert
According to the official Leader's Debate Commission, the PPC has a legitimate chance of winning this seat. According to riding level polls conducted for the commission by Ekos, at least 25% of respondents said it was ‘possible’ that they would vote for the People's Party candidate. Who would have thought that Maxime had a shot here.
03/09/19 Can_eh_dian Redhead
The only thing Renata Ford did by running for the PPC is to syphon off a few extra Conservative votes and guarantee a Liberal win here. Oh, and to once again publicly air her grievance with the Ford family.
05/08/20 A.S.
The thing to keep in mind about Renata Ford is that she's somewhat on the outs with her in-laws (she filed a suit against them prior to the 2018 election, remember)--however, things are so twisted within that whole blood and non-blood clan that who knows what any of this means; besides, whenever there's a split in the right, the Fords have a way of hemming and hawing because even if the 'power' lies in the mainstream camp, their natural inclinations (and even more emphatically, those of their most active diehard social-media followers) might well lie more in the trollish fringe camp. (In this light, it's worth noting that in the 2018 mayoral election, Faith Goldy suspiciously overperformed in Doug Ford's home poll.) So there could be a weird veiled unendorsement/endorsement thing going on here re Renata's candidacy--and for all anyone knows (least of all the voters), it's a tactic on behalf of maintaining the Kirsty/Justin status quo as some kind of conveniently on-hand professional-wrestling 'bad guy'. (*No wonder* the Conservative candidate in 2015 was surnamed 'Dada'.) Oh, and in the present circumstance, all of that plus being within the erstwhile Jagmeetland BramptonMaltonian orbit could even drag the NDP up the middle into 2nd place--who knows...
28/06/19 Craig
Still calling this for the Liberals, but with Renata Ford running, this may be a riding of surprises. She hasn't been high profile, but the Ford family is very popular in Etobicoke North and if that message gets out, she might have a chance. At the very least, she could finish a solid second, although beating the Liberals would have to be done on a personal level. If they don't pull hard then it should be an easy hold for Kirsty Duncan by default.
One think Ford running for the PPC does is likely annihilates the Conservatives here. Most of their vote is likely Ford-enhanced, not natural Conservative support, and I could actually see them finishing 4th or even 5th here, with a result more comparable to - or worse than - the most left-wing downtown ridings. They might as well just find some dog catcher for candidate if they don't have one yet. Interesting times ahead...but for now, best to be on the safe side and keep it a Liberal hold.
21/06/19 Marco Ricci
It was announced today that Renata Ford (Rob Ford's widow) will be running for Maxime Bernier's People's Party in Etobicoke North.
It will be interesting to see if this takes votes away from the Conservatives.
21/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Wow...so a lot has happened since my preceding post. Turns out a member of the Ford family IS running....for Maxime Bernier's PPC! Renata Ford, widow of Rob Ford, will be on the ballot, and I am sure she will get some votes. One wonders if the power and efficacy of the Ford brand could even propel her into second place given how far behind all the other parties are. That being said, I'm standing by my Liberal prediction. Renata Ford, while a beneficiary of the Ford Nation brand, has always stood in the background until now...she may have the right name but I don't think she will have the profile to make it a serious race. It's one hell of a coup for Bernier to get her on the ballot though. You can expect the PPC to punch well above its' weight class in this riding.
21/06/19 seasaw
Here we have a member of the Ford family running in this election. Renata Ford, the widow of Rob Ford is the PPC candidate, she won't win here, but this might be the only riding in Ontario where the PPC gets more votes than CPC.
21/06/19 RD
There will in fact be ‘an actual member of the Ford family on the ballot’ - Rob's widow Renata. However she is running for the People's Party. Under the circumstances she seems more likely to split the Conservative vote than to actually win, but stranger things have happened.
14/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Without an actual member of the Ford family on the ballot, Ford Nation will be irrelevant here. Not to mention that Andrew Scheer appears to be very much on the run with respect to his relationship to Doug Ford anyway. Whether you look at past federal results or past provincial results in which a member of the Ford family was NOT a candidate, the typical Conservative haul seems to be 20-30% ever since the '90s. I'd expect a result more in line with those figures than I would the outlier result that the Ford brand of populism achieves in its own right.
12/04/19 Sam
This is a Liberal seat regardless of the role Doug Ford plays, and I suspect they will still get a majority of the vote here. Even without Kirsty Duncan, I'd be surprised if they lost this.
06/04/19 Legolas
How big a role Ford plays in this election will determine a lot for this seat. Kirsty Duncan won big, but Ford taking 50%+ shows that he can increase the Conservative ceiling immensely if his machine is involved with the CPC candidate's campaign.
02/03/19 seasaw
Since inception, this riding has only elected a Tory once. Dr Kirsty Duncan not only is a good MP, but also one of the most competent cabinet ministers, I went to school with her, she is a friend of mine. Even with the Liberal leadership on shaky grounds, she can still win on her own, if she gets in trouble in this riding, it would mean the Liberals are in more trouble than any party has ever been in
27/02/19 Craig
This has long been a Liberal seat federally (even in 2011). The demographics aren't exactly Liberal-friendly, but they normally win here under most circumstances. It *should* remain that way, with one caveat. If Michael Ford decides to vacate his council seat and run federally for the Conservatives, he'd instantly become the frontrunner. Or are there any other Fords willing to run? They dominate here municipally and Doug Ford won easily in his own seat last year. Without a Ford on the ballot though, Etobicoke North stays red.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a pretty solidly Liberal riding (they even won it during the 2011 meltdown) with the one caveat being it is the heart of Ford Nation, so as we saw provincially goes Tory when there is a Ford on the ballot. So unless a member of the Ford family runs here, I suspect the Liberals will hold this, although wouldn't be surprised if the Tories do better than normal due to the Ford effect.

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