|The thing to keep in mind about Renata Ford is that she's somewhat on the outs with her in-laws (she filed a suit against them prior to the 2018 election, remember)--however, things are so twisted within that whole blood and non-blood clan that who knows what any of this means; besides, whenever there's a split in the right, the Fords have a way of hemming and hawing because even if the 'power' lies in the mainstream camp, their natural inclinations (and even more emphatically, those of their most active diehard social-media followers) might well lie more in the trollish fringe camp. (In this light, it's worth noting that in the 2018 mayoral election, Faith Goldy suspiciously overperformed in Doug Ford's home poll.) So there could be a weird veiled unendorsement/endorsement thing going on here re Renata's candidacy--and for all anyone knows (least of all the voters), it's a tactic on behalf of maintaining the Kirsty/Justin status quo as some kind of conveniently on-hand professional-wrestling 'bad guy'. (*No wonder* the Conservative candidate in 2015 was surnamed 'Dada'.) Oh, and in the present circumstance, all of that plus being within the erstwhile Jagmeetland BramptonMaltonian orbit could even drag the NDP up the middle into 2nd place--who knows...|
|Still calling this for the Liberals, but with Renata Ford running, this may be a riding of surprises. She hasn't been high profile, but the Ford family is very popular in Etobicoke North and if that message gets out, she might have a chance. At the very least, she could finish a solid second, although beating the Liberals would have to be done on a personal level. If they don't pull hard then it should be an easy hold for Kirsty Duncan by default.|
One think Ford running for the PPC does is likely annihilates the Conservatives here. Most of their vote is likely Ford-enhanced, not natural Conservative support, and I could actually see them finishing 4th or even 5th here, with a result more comparable to - or worse than - the most left-wing downtown ridings. They might as well just find some dog catcher for candidate if they don't have one yet. Interesting times ahead...but for now, best to be on the safe side and keep it a Liberal hold.
|It was announced today that Renata Ford (Rob Ford's widow) will be running for Maxime Bernier's People's Party in Etobicoke North.|
It will be interesting to see if this takes votes away from the Conservatives.
|Wow...so a lot has happened since my preceding post. Turns out a member of the Ford family IS running....for Maxime Bernier's PPC! Renata Ford, widow of Rob Ford, will be on the ballot, and I am sure she will get some votes. One wonders if the power and efficacy of the Ford brand could even propel her into second place given how far behind all the other parties are. That being said, I'm standing by my Liberal prediction. Renata Ford, while a beneficiary of the Ford Nation brand, has always stood in the background until now...she may have the right name but I don't think she will have the profile to make it a serious race. It's one hell of a coup for Bernier to get her on the ballot though. You can expect the PPC to punch well above its' weight class in this riding.|
|Here we have a member of the Ford family running in this election. Renata Ford, the widow of Rob Ford is the PPC candidate, she won't win here, but this might be the only riding in Ontario where the PPC gets more votes than CPC.|
|There will in fact be an actual member of the Ford family on the ballot - Rob's widow Renata. However she is running for the People's Party. Under the circumstances she seems more likely to split the Conservative vote than to actually win, but stranger things have happened.|
|Without an actual member of the Ford family on the ballot, Ford Nation will be irrelevant here. Not to mention that Andrew Scheer appears to be very much on the run with respect to his relationship to Doug Ford anyway. Whether you look at past federal results or past provincial results in which a member of the Ford family was NOT a candidate, the typical Conservative haul seems to be 20-30% ever since the '90s. I'd expect a result more in line with those figures than I would the outlier result that the Ford brand of populism achieves in its own right.|
|This is a Liberal seat regardless of the role Doug Ford plays, and I suspect they will still get a majority of the vote here. Even without Kirsty Duncan, I'd be surprised if they lost this.|
|How big a role Ford plays in this election will determine a lot for this seat. Kirsty Duncan won big, but Ford taking 50%+ shows that he can increase the Conservative ceiling immensely if his machine is involved with the CPC candidate's campaign.|
|Since inception, this riding has only elected a Tory once. Dr Kirsty Duncan not only is a good MP, but also one of the most competent cabinet ministers, I went to school with her, she is a friend of mine. Even with the Liberal leadership on shaky grounds, she can still win on her own, if she gets in trouble in this riding, it would mean the Liberals are in more trouble than any party has ever been in|
|This has long been a Liberal seat federally (even in 2011). The demographics aren't exactly Liberal-friendly, but they normally win here under most circumstances. It *should* remain that way, with one caveat. If Michael Ford decides to vacate his council seat and run federally for the Conservatives, he'd instantly become the frontrunner. Or are there any other Fords willing to run? They dominate here municipally and Doug Ford won easily in his own seat last year. Without a Ford on the ballot though, Etobicoke North stays red.|
|This is a pretty solidly Liberal riding (they even won it during the 2011 meltdown) with the one caveat being it is the heart of Ford Nation, so as we saw provincially goes Tory when there is a Ford on the ballot. So unless a member of the Ford family runs here, I suspect the Liberals will hold this, although wouldn't be surprised if the Tories do better than normal due to the Ford effect.|